Global Risk Indexes (06-01-2025)

Global 94 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 96 ( —)
Africa 85 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 93 (-1 ▼)
Markets 94 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Governance Crises, Security Tensions, and Strategic Shifts Challenge Stability Across the Americas

Governance crises and political uncertainty define the Americas' evolving landscape. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's possible resignation, amid internal dissent and plummeting public support, signals a critical juncture for Canada's Liberal Party. Trudeau's exit could destabilize Canada's domestic political landscape as it prepares for contentious negotiations with President-elect Donald Trump's administration, risking further strain on Canada-U.S. relations and trade policies. The Liberals' leadership vacuum would likely trigger a swift election, compounding uncertainties.

Security interventions in Haiti illustrate the region's struggle to stabilize fragile states. Guatemala's deployment of 150 military police officers to bolster the U.N.-backed mission reflects a regional commitment to addressing Haiti's gang violence. However, the mission's limited capacity to secure lasting peace highlights the inadequacies of piecemeal interventions. Without comprehensive governance reforms and international coordination, Haiti's descent into lawlessness risks destabilizing the Caribbean and exacerbating migration flows.

Resource governance conflicts intensify in Ecuador, highlighting systemic institutional fragilities. Former Vice President Jorge Glas' evacuation following an alleged assassination attempt underscores the pervasive influence of organized crime within Ecuador's prisons. The incident, framed by Glas' supporters as a politically motivated attack, exposes deep-seated governance weaknesses and the state's inability to ensure basic security in correctional facilities. Such crises tarnish Ecuador's international reputation and deter foreign investment.

The FBI's investigation into the New Year's Day terrorist attack in New Orleans reveals broader security vulnerabilities. The suspect's travels to Egypt and Canada point to transnational influences and highlight the challenges of addressing lone-wolf terrorism in an interconnected world. The attack underscores the importance of robust intelligence-sharing mechanisms within the Americas to counter extremist threats effectively.

Short-term risks include political instability in Canada, escalating violence in Haiti, and governance crises in Ecuador. Long-term solutions demand regional cooperation, institutional reforms, and a commitment to addressing systemic inequities that fuel these crises.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(06-01-2025)

The Americas grapple with interwoven governance, security, and migration crises, reflecting systemic vulnerabilities that threaten regional stability. Strategic recalibrations, domestic turbulence, and external pressures necessitate cohesive strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term structural challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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