Global Risk Indexes (10-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 99 (+1 ▲)
Africa 89 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 95 (+2 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

From Rare Earth Rivalries to Security Risks: The Americas Navigate a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Strategic resource competition underscores the Americas' critical role in a shifting global order. The U.S. lobbying success in Greenland's rare earth sector, securing Tanbreez Mining's project for Critical Metals, highlights the region's growing importance in countering Chinese dominance in critical mineral supply chains. However, this victory reflects broader vulnerabilities, as reliance on political pressure and subsidies exposes the West's struggle to present sustainable alternatives to China's resource strategies. The emphasis on defense and high-tech applications underscores the geopolitical stakes, particularly as rare earths increasingly underpin global power dynamics.

Labor dynamics in the United States expose the intersection of political influence and economic strategy. The tentative agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators averts immediate trade disruptions but raises questions about the sustainability of such accords in an era of technological transformation. While President-elect Trump's rhetoric has resonated with unions, his broader labor policy remains contradictory, as historical anti-union stances and automation advocacy highlight inconsistencies that could erode labor confidence over time.

Wildfires in California reveal systemic weaknesses in disaster response and climate adaptation policies. The ongoing crisis, which has claimed lives and displaced tens of thousands, underscores the urgent need for a cohesive strategy aligning federal, state, and local efforts. Vice President Harris' cancellation of international engagements reflects the magnitude of the disaster and the administration's prioritization of domestic crises amidst mounting climate risks.

Panama faces a resurgence of historical grievances amidst Trump's expansionist rhetoric. The Martyrs' Day protests demonstrate enduring sensitivities over U.S.-Panama Canal relations. Trump's threats to retake control of the canal risk exacerbating tensions and destabilizing one of the region's most strategic infrastructure assets. This dynamic also highlights the geopolitical implications of China's investments in Panama's port infrastructure, further complicating U.S.-China competition in the region.

Security incidents across the Americas highlight systemic governance failures. Venezuela's political and security crises, including high-profile kidnappings and arrests, illustrate the regime's precarious position amidst looming U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, the Cuban arms depot explosion emphasizes regional vulnerabilities in managing critical infrastructure. These developments call for strengthened multilateral frameworks to address cross-border security challenges effectively.

Short-term risks center around labor unrest, climate disasters, and rising geopolitical tensions over strategic resources. Over the long term, addressing governance inefficiencies, fostering regional cooperation, and diversifying economic models will be crucial to enhancing resilience amidst an evolving global power dynamic.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(10-01-2025)

The Americas face an intensifying convergence of internal political turmoil, external geopolitical pressures, and resource-based strategic rivalries. The complex interplay between governance weaknesses, security challenges, and global power dynamics demands a proactive, cohesive regional approach to mitigate risks.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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