Global Risk Indexes (09-01-2025)

Global 96 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 88 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 93 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Geopolitical Shocks, Resource Dependencies, and Political Tensions Reshape the Americas' Strategic Trajectory

Geopolitical tensions in Panama highlight the region's vulnerability to historical grievances and global power plays. Commemorations of Martyrs' Day in Panama have rekindled anti-U.S. sentiments as President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive rhetoric about retaking the Panama Canal stirs unease. This move threatens to destabilize Panama's strategic neutrality and could draw the country into broader geopolitical conflicts, particularly as China's influence in the region grows.

Argentina's privatization of IMPSA underscores the challenges of balancing fiscal discipline with national sovereignty. While President Javier Milei's economic reforms aim to stabilize the country's finances, the sale of a critical industrial asset to a U.S.-based consortium risks amplifying domestic resistance to foreign ownership and creating long-term vulnerabilities in strategic industries. The debt restructuring terms tied to this sale could define the government's fiscal legacy and its ability to navigate public discontent.

Brazil faces systemic governance and economic challenges amidst capital flight and domestic discontent. The record $18 billion capital outflow in 2024 highlights investor apprehension about Brazil's fiscal policies and the structural inefficiencies in its economy. Inflationary pressures, rising consumer prices, and labor controversies threaten to exacerbate inequality and undermine the Lula administration's social and economic programs.

Security and governance crises in Venezuela and Central America expose deep institutional weaknesses. The kidnapping of a prominent opposition figure's relative and the arrest of U.S. citizens accused of subversive activities reflect a volatile political climate in Venezuela. Meanwhile, transnational security incidents, such as the murder of a Honduran consulate guard in Atlanta, underscore the region's susceptibility to organized crime and weak cross-border cooperation.

U.S.-Canada relations face a critical juncture as Canada weighs retaliatory tariffs against Trump's aggressive trade policies. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's impending resignation compounds uncertainty, as his successor must navigate an election against a surging Conservative Party and prepare for contentious negotiations with the incoming U.S. administration. The potential for a trade war looms large, threatening North American economic integration.

Short-term risks include rising anti-U.S. sentiment in Panama, Venezuela's political fragmentation, and Brazil's fiscal instability. Long-term challenges demand a comprehensive regional strategy addressing governance, security, and sustainable economic growth amidst global power shifts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(09-01-2025)

The Americas face heightened geopolitical turbulence driven by political volatility, resource dependencies, and escalating security risks. Strategic recalibrations are essential as both internal weaknesses and external pressures challenge regional cohesion and stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings