Security Threats and Resource Politics Shape Africa's Geopolitical Challenges on January 9
Chad's foiled attack on the presidential palace underscores the nation's precarious political stability amid intensifying security threats. The assault, described as an attempted terrorist act involving armed assailants, highlights Chad's vulnerabilities following its recent realignment from France to alternative security partnerships. As Chad grapples with regional spillovers from the Sahel's jihadist conflicts and fallout from Sudan's war, reinforcing internal security frameworks and regional alliances is imperative to stabilizing the country and addressing root causes of unrest.
Sudan's humanitarian crisis continues to escalate under the shadow of U.S. sanctions targeting the RSF leadership for alleged genocide. While aimed at curtailing resource exploitation, the sanctions risk deepening the suffering of Sudan's civilian population, half of whom face acute hunger. Sudan's resource governance remains a critical fault line, as gold revenues are diverted to sustain conflict. Coordinated international interventions, supported by regional powers, must focus on dismantling illicit trade networks and addressing the drivers of Sudan's protracted instability.
Mozambique's political unrest intensifies with the return of opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, who contests the October election results. Mondlane's defiance, coupled with violent state crackdowns on protests, reflects the fragility of Mozambique's democratic processes. With 278 reported deaths since the election and border disruptions impacting trade with South Africa, Mozambique faces a critical juncture. Achieving stability will require independent electoral reforms, accountability for rights violations, and inclusive dialogue between political factions.
Zambia's currency crisis underscores the economic strain caused by climate shocks and governance challenges. The kwacha's record lows, driven by severe drought and reduced electricity generation, have exacerbated Zambia's reliance on copper exports for foreign currency. Sustainable recovery demands diversification beyond extractive industries, investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure, and sound fiscal management to restore confidence in Zambia's economic stability.
Nigeria-China relations deepen as Beijing provides a $254.76 million loan for the Kano-Kaduna railway project. While advancing infrastructure goals under the Belt and Road Initiative, China's growing financial footprint raises concerns about debt sustainability and Nigeria's strategic autonomy. To balance these dynamics, Nigeria must leverage the partnership for technology transfer and prioritize debt management frameworks to mitigate long-term risks.
In conclusion, January 9 illustrates Africa's dual narrative of entrenched challenges and potential opportunities. Security crises in Chad, Sudan, and Mozambique highlight the urgent need for governance reform and regional coordination. Meanwhile, Nigeria's infrastructure ambitions and Zambia's recovery efforts underscore the continent's potential for resilience through strategic planning and international collaboration.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(09-01-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on January 9 is marked by a blend of resource-driven disputes, governance challenges, and heightened external influences. Developments in Chad's thwarted attack, Sudan's deepening crisis, and Mozambique's political unrest underscore the continent's persistent vulnerabilities, while opportunities for transformative change lie in effective governance, regional cooperation, and strategic international partnerships.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Security Threats and Resource Politics Shape Africa's Geopolitical Challenges on January 9 - (09-01-2025)
- Resource Exploitation and Governance Challenges Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 8 - (08-01-2025)
- Gold Politics, Security Threats, and Resource Disruptions Reshape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 7 - (07-01-2025)
- Security Escalations and Strategic Partnerships Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 6 - (06-01-2025)
- Reforms, Resilience, and Security Tensions Define Africa's Geopolitical Trajectory - (05-01-2025)
- Cross-Border Tensions, Volcanic Risks, and Governance Challenges Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 4 - (04-01-2025)
- Regional Tensions and Economic Trends Define Africa's Geopolitical Dynamics on January 3 - (03-01-2025)
- Energy Reforms and Security Challenges Define Africa's Strategic Outlook on January 2 - (02-01-2025)
