Global Risk Indexes (10-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 99 (+1 ▲)
Africa 89 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 95 (+2 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA's Complex Terrain: Gaza's Despair, Lebanon's Revival, and Regional Realignments

The Middle East remains a landscape of profound instability and transformation as key events in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey redefine regional dynamics. The unfolding crises present not only humanitarian challenges but also significant geopolitical implications.

The Gaza conflict continues to exact an unbearable toll, with over 46,000 fatalities reported and much of the enclave left in ruins. Despite mediated ceasefire talks in Doha, progress remains elusive as Israel insists on maintaining buffer zones that restrict the return of residents. Hamas, in turn, demands a full withdrawal and the end of hostilities. The transition in U.S. leadership adds further uncertainty, with President-elect Trump's administration signaling a more aggressive posture toward Hamas. The ICC's ongoing investigation into potential war crimes in Gaza intensifies international scrutiny, amplifying tensions between Western allies and Israeli leadership. The humanitarian situation remains dire, as winter conditions exacerbate already devastating living conditions.

Lebanon's election of Joseph Aoun as president offers a potential inflection point for a country marred by political paralysis and economic collapse. Aoun's background as a military leader with ties to the U.S. and Gulf nations positions him as a unifying figure, but the challenges ahead are monumental. His administration must navigate post-war reconstruction, address a $8.5 billion damage toll, and contend with a Hezbollah weakened militarily but still influential politically. Aoun's role in consolidating a fragile ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while balancing domestic sectarian dynamics, will be pivotal in determining Lebanon's trajectory.

Syria's fragile transition under HTS reflects the complexities of post-Assad governance. While the U.S. sanctions waiver and EU deliberations on easing restrictions provide avenues for economic stabilization, the lack of comprehensive international coordination risks undermining these efforts. HTS's Islamist roots and continued reliance on illicit revenues such as captagon production further complicate its legitimacy. Meanwhile, Turkish flights to Damascus signal a shift in Ankara's strategy, aiming to deepen its influence in post-Assad Syria, even as it grapples with tensions over Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria.

Turkey's recalibration of its Kurdish strategy reflects Ankara's dual priorities: addressing domestic security concerns while asserting its regional influence. Talks with Abdullah Ocalan and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party mark a cautious opening for peace, but Erdogan's rhetoric and ongoing military operations in Syria indicate a hardline approach remains predominant. The broader implications of Turkey's actions in northern Syria, particularly in the context of Kurdish autonomy and U.S. relations, highlight the potential for further destabilization if Ankara's ambitions are perceived as overreach.

The Gulf's economic resilience highlights adaptability amidst global monetary uncertainties. While subdued stock markets reflect caution over U.S. Federal Reserve policy, Gulf states continue leveraging their fiscal strength to assert geopolitical influence, notably through investments in post-conflict recovery efforts in Gaza and Syria. However, reliance on oil revenues remains a structural vulnerability, particularly as OPEC production cuts create tensions between short-term fiscal needs and long-term energy market dynamics.

Strategic implications: The MENA region's intersecting crises demand a multifaceted and inclusive international response. Gaza's protracted war risks entrenching divisions and exacerbating humanitarian suffering. Lebanon's political transition offers a glimmer of hope but requires sustained support to address economic and sectarian challenges. Meanwhile, Syria's fragile governance and Turkey's assertive policies underscore the need for coordinated diplomacy to prevent further fragmentation. Without sustained efforts to address these systemic issues, the region's volatility is likely to persist, with global ramifications for security and economic stability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(10-01-2025)

The MENA region's geopolitical fabric is increasingly fragile as long-standing conflicts intersect with emerging power dynamics. Developments in Gaza, Lebanon, Turkey, and Syria highlight the intricate interplay of local grievances, regional ambitions, and international responses, underscoring the urgency for a coordinated global strategy to address escalating tensions.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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