Global Risk Indexes (11-01-2025)

Global 95 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (-2 ▼)
Africa 86 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 94 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Volatility, Security Crises, and U.S. Expansionism Define the Americas' Strategic Reality

The Americas' geopolitical landscape remains defined by intersecting economic, security, and political dynamics. From Venezuela's contested political situation to Canada's preparations for retaliatory tariffs against U.S. protectionism, the region faces escalating internal and external pressures. These developments underscore the systemic governance challenges that threaten regional stability and cohesion.

Venezuela's political crisis continues to expose systemic weaknesses and deepen regional divides. President Maduro's inauguration for a third term, amid accusations of electoral fraud, has intensified international condemnation. Sanctions from the U.S., EU, and Canada target high-ranking officials, reflecting coordinated efforts to isolate the regime. However, Maduro's alliances with China, Russia, and Iran, coupled with internal military support, sustain his position. The brief detention of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and U.S. statements supporting opposition figure Edmundo Gonzalez further highlight the polarized political environment. Venezuela's instability risks exacerbating migration flows and regional security threats, demanding sustained international attention.

Canada's economic and political uncertainty grows amid escalating tensions with the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive rhetoric, including potential 25% tariffs and provocative suggestions of annexation, has alarmed Canadian leaders. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's planned resignation adds another layer of instability as his Liberal Party prepares for a contentious leadership race. Canada's strategic industries, heavily reliant on U.S. markets, remain vulnerable to protectionist policies, prompting urgent discussions on diversification and resilience.

Brazil faces a complex economic and political environment, where inflationary pressures and governance controversies shape investor sentiment. December's inflation data, though slightly below forecasts, reinforces expectations of continued monetary tightening. President Lula da Silva's administration must balance fiscal discipline with the need for structural reforms to restore investor confidence amidst challenges like record capital outflows and labor disputes with major multinational firms like BYD.

Resource competition and geopolitical rivalries further highlight the Americas' strategic importance. U.S. efforts to secure critical rare earth resources in Greenland reflect the region's pivotal role in global supply chains. However, this underscores vulnerabilities in countering China's dominance in strategic industries. Meanwhile, security incidents such as Cuba's arms depot explosion and transnational crime in Central America reveal systemic governance failures, necessitating robust regional frameworks to address these issues effectively.

Short-term risks are driven by escalating trade tensions, political polarization in Venezuela, and economic volatility in Brazil. Over the long term, addressing these challenges will require a cohesive approach that integrates governance reform, multilateral cooperation, and strategic alignment with global trends.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(11-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating a period of heightened geopolitical turbulence, where economic recalibrations, security crises, and regional power shifts intersect with global competition. The region's ability to address these layered challenges will determine its strategic trajectory in an increasingly multipolar order.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings