Global Risk Indexes (11-01-2025)

Global 95 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (-2 ▼)
Africa 86 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 94 (-1 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific in Flux: Political Instability, Strategic Realignments, and Economic Shifts Shape a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

The Asia-Pacific remains a focal point of geopolitical uncertainty, where political instability, economic vulnerabilities, and strategic competition intertwine to reshape the region's trajectory.

In South Korea, the Constitutional Court's hearings on President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment and the ongoing standoff over his arrest underscore a deep governance crisis. Acting President Choi Sang-mok's focus on maintaining the U.S.-South Korea alliance amidst these challenges highlights the administration's attempt to stabilize the nation's external posture. However, domestic turmoil weakens Seoul's ability to project strength, leaving it vulnerable to security threats from North Korea and economic shocks in a globally uncertain environment.

North Korea continues to exploit regional instability to enhance its strategic leverage. Reports of Pyongyang's military collaboration with Russia, including combat experience for North Korean troops in Ukraine, signal a new dimension of Northeast Asian security challenges. This alignment not only strengthens Pyongyang's capabilities but also complicates U.S. and allied strategies aimed at maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific.

China's property sector remains a point of economic fragility, as exemplified by the liquidation petition against Shimao Group. Beijing's broader struggles to stabilize its real estate market amidst rising global headwinds reveal structural vulnerabilities that could have cascading effects on regional economic confidence. Simultaneously, China's aggressive grey-zone tactics against Taiwan, including infrastructure sabotage, emphasize a long-term strategy to incrementally weaken Taipei's resilience while testing the resolve of its allies.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia is navigating a complex intersection of political and legal controversies. The revelations surrounding former Prime Minister Najib Razak's alleged house arrest highlight systemic governance challenges that could erode public trust. Meanwhile, Indonesia's proactive foreign policy initiatives, particularly in maritime security, reflect Jakarta's growing ambition to assert itself as a leader in Southeast Asian affairs amidst intensifying U.S.-China rivalries.

Economic shifts also dominate regional discourse. Taiwan's semiconductor industry, a critical node in global technology supply chains, faces potential disruptions from incoming U.S. tariff policies under President-elect Donald Trump. While Taiwanese officials remain optimistic about the minimal impact on advanced semiconductor exports due to technological superiority, broader trade uncertainties could dampen growth for the island's export-dependent economy.

The assassination of Cambodian opposition figure Lim Kimya in Thailand underscores the broader trend of political repression and instability across Southeast Asia. This act of transnational violence highlights the precarious position of exiled political figures and the regional implications of authoritarian practices.

As the Asia-Pacific navigates these challenges, its ability to address interconnected risks will determine the region's stability and influence in a multipolar world. Regional actors must prioritize resilience and adaptability to mitigate these escalating pressures.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(11-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region faces heightened tensions driven by intersecting leadership crises, strategic realignments, and economic recalibrations. These factors, combined with increasing regional rivalries and domestic uncertainties, underscore a volatile geopolitical environment with far-reaching implications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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