Global Risk Indexes (11-01-2025)

Global 95 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (-2 ▼)
Africa 86 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 94 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA's Escalating Tensions: Gaza Stalemates, Lebanese Resets, and Shifting Alliances

The Middle East's fragile geopolitical landscape continues to reflect a convergence of armed conflict, political transitions, and economic vulnerabilities. January 11, 2025, highlighted deepening regional crises and the pressing need for strategic engagement by regional and international actors.

Gaza's enduring devastation underscores the region's entrenched humanitarian and political crises. Israeli airstrikes continue to target Gaza, with the enclave's infrastructure largely decimated and nearly 46,000 fatalities reported. A new dimension to the conflict emerged with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz demanding Hamas' disarmament under the threat of escalating military operations. Mediation efforts in Doha, led by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., remain strained, with both sides maintaining uncompromising positions. The humanitarian crisis grows dire as winter conditions exacerbate displacement and shortages of essential supplies. The UNRWA controversy, centered on its potential closure in Gaza, adds further strain, as international aid agencies scramble to address the vacuum it might leave.

Syria's transitional administration, under HTS, faces persistent challenges to its domestic and international legitimacy. The EU and U.S. have raised concerns over the appointment of foreign jihadists to senior military roles, reflecting a broader unease about Syria's governance trajectory. The HTS-led government's reliance on controversial actors undermines its efforts to gain international recognition, while ongoing Israeli airstrikes on key infrastructure compound Syria's instability. Italian and French calls for a sanctions moratorium reveal an emerging schism within the EU, with some members advocating economic leniency to facilitate humanitarian aid and reconstruction, and others wary of legitimizing HTS.

Lebanon's election of Joseph Aoun marks a potential shift in the country's sectarian and political dynamics. Backed by U.S. and Gulf allies, Aoun's presidency seeks to rebuild trust in state institutions while reducing Hezbollah's influence. However, efforts to enforce U.N. Resolution 1701, including disarming militias in southern Lebanon, face resistance, reflecting deep-seated political and sectarian divides. Lebanon's ties to Syria, amplified by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati's historic visit to Damascus, underscore the complexities of navigating post-Assad regional alignments.

Yemen's conflict sees an escalation as Israeli strikes target Houthi-controlled areas in retaliation for drone and missile attacks on Tel Aviv and U.S. naval assets in the Red Sea. The Houthi use of advanced drones signals Iran's growing influence and the technological sophistication of its regional proxies. These dynamics not only exacerbate the Yemeni humanitarian crisis but also risk dragging the conflict into broader regional rivalries, particularly as U.S. and British forces respond alongside Israel.

The Gulf's economic engagements, spearheaded by Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani's $20 billion U.S. data center investment, reflect a strategic pivot toward high-tech industries. While this underscores the Gulf's drive for diversification, it also highlights the increasing intersection between economic strategies and geopolitical influence. Gulf sovereign wealth funds' close ties to U.S. infrastructure projects signal a deepening alignment with Washington, even as they navigate regional rivalries and shifting global economic paradigms.

Strategic Implications: The convergence of Gaza's conflict, Syria's transition, Yemen's regional entanglements, and Lebanon's political shifts underscores the fragility of the MENA region. Without comprehensive and inclusive strategies to address systemic vulnerabilities, the region risks deeper fragmentation with significant global ramifications for security, economic stability, and humanitarian efforts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(11-01-2025)

The MENA region remains deeply volatile, with conflicts in Gaza and Yemen, political shifts in Lebanon, and transitional challenges in Syria revealing a fragile geopolitical balance. The interplay between local power struggles and international alignments continues to define the region's trajectory, necessitating coordinated international strategies to mitigate risks.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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