Global Risk Indexes (17-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 97 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 91 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 97 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 (+3 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Geopolitical Tensions, Resource Dynamics, and Governance Failures Shape the Americas' Volatile Trajectory

The Americas' strategic landscape remains fraught with challenges where economic recalibrations and geopolitical rivalries intersect with systemic governance vulnerabilities. Recent developments underscore the critical need for sustainable policy frameworks and multilateral collaboration to address these pressing issues.

Brazil's political and economic challenges highlight the fragile balance between governance reform and stability. Former President Jair Bolsonaro's legal battles, including his request to travel to the U.S. for Trump's inauguration, reflect deep political polarization and ongoing institutional tensions. Meanwhile, Brazil's economic performance in late 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by strong household consumption and rising investments despite fiscal tightening. However, systemic risks remain, particularly as the government implements new tax reforms aimed at consolidating fiscal stability amidst concerns over inflation and high interest rates.

Canadian economic uncertainty intensifies amidst U.S. trade protectionism and political transitions. With tariffs looming under President-elect Trump, Canada's retaliatory measures targeting critical minerals signal an assertive approach to safeguarding economic interests. Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney's leadership bid for the Liberal Party introduces a new dynamic in Canada's political landscape, potentially shaping its response to domestic and international challenges. The housing sector's contraction further reflects vulnerabilities in Canada's economic resilience amid escalating geopolitical pressures.

Migration crises across the Americas underscore systemic governance failures and escalating socio-economic pressures. The anticipated mass deportations under Trump's administration amplify fears among migrant communities, particularly in Florida and Texas. Humanitarian crises in Haiti and Central America further strain regional stability, exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure and insufficient international support. The U.S.-Mexico collaboration on border enforcement, while addressing immediate pressures, risks overlooking long-term structural solutions to migration challenges.

Resource competition and economic recalibrations highlight the Americas' pivotal role in global supply chains. Codelco's ambitious copper production targets and Peru's expanding crude oil exports to the U.S. emphasize the region's strategic importance in meeting global resource demands. However, delays in infrastructure upgrades and governance inefficiencies in these sectors underline the challenges of sustaining long-term growth. Similarly, the dominance of Brazilian soybeans in Chinese markets, amid U.S.-China trade tensions, illustrates shifting dynamics in agricultural trade and its broader geopolitical implications.

Short-term risks are dominated by U.S.-Canada trade disputes, migration tensions, and resource-driven economic adjustments. Long-term stability demands cohesive regional policies, investment in sustainable development, and strategic alignment with evolving global trends to mitigate these interconnected risks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(17-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating a complex nexus of geopolitical challenges, economic uncertainties, and systemic governance issues. Trade tensions, resource dependencies, and migration crises dominate the regional agenda, necessitating cohesive strategies and multilateral engagement to address these multi-dimensional risks effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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