Escalating Conflicts and Resource Diplomacy Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 17
Sudan's escalating conflict has drawn further international condemnation, with the U.S. imposing sanctions on army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Accused of indiscriminate bombings and targeting civilians, Burhan's defiance reflects entrenched military priorities over political reconciliation. With similar sanctions imposed on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) earlier this month, Washington's balanced approach underscores its intent to avoid legitimizing either side. However, the sanctions alone are unlikely to end hostilities without a robust framework for inclusive negotiations and enforcement mechanisms ensuring accountability for war crimes.
Libya's oil sector transition, following the resignation of National Oil Corporation (NOC) head Farhat Bengdara, exemplifies the governance fragility within resource-dependent states. Bengdara's tenure was marked by efforts to stabilize Libya's oil output despite recurring blockades driven by political factions. The appointment of Masoud Sulaiman as acting chief offers an opportunity to restructure governance and enhance transparency. However, the NOC's effectiveness will hinge on its ability to remain insulated from Libya's broader political instability.
Nigeria's intensified military operations in Borno State have led to the reported killing of 76 militants from Boko Haram and ISWAP, reflecting ongoing efforts to suppress insurgency. While the military's recent gains signal tactical progress, the enduring insurgency highlights systemic governance failures in addressing root causes such as poverty, unemployment, and resource mismanagement. A shift toward community-based security frameworks and socio-economic programs is crucial to achieving sustainable peace.
Cote d'Ivoire's cocoa smuggling crisis underscores the economic fragility tied to weak governance structures. With an estimated 75,000 metric tons smuggled since October 2024, the crisis jeopardizes government revenues and global cocoa market stability. Institutional reforms to combat corruption, coupled with regional cooperation, are essential to mitigating the long-term risks associated with this illicit trade.
Zambia's evolving resource diplomacy, reflected in discussions with Saudi Arabia's Manara Minerals, signals a strategic recalibration toward diversified investment partnerships. As Zambia aims to boost copper production to three million metric tons annually, securing equitable partnerships while maintaining sovereign oversight will be critical. However, recent efforts to negotiate higher state shareholdings in mining ventures risk deterring investors unless accompanied by clear, transparent regulations.
The tragedy at South Africa's Stilfontein mine, where 78 miners perished during a siege-like crackdown on illegal mining, exposes the intersection of governance failures and socio-economic desperation. The operation, criticized as a state-sponsored massacre, highlights the need for humane enforcement policies and robust community engagement to address the systemic drivers of illegal mining.
In conclusion, January 17 illustrates Africa's multifaceted geopolitical realities, where entrenched conflicts, governance transitions, and resource diplomacy converge. The continent's long-term stability depends on addressing systemic governance deficits, fostering inclusive economic policies, and leveraging international partnerships to build resilience and equitable development.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(17-01-2025)
Africa's geopolitical trajectory on January 17 reveals a landscape of escalating conflicts, governance transitions, and resource-driven economic reconfigurations. Developments in Sudan, Libya, and Nigeria highlight persistent security and governance failures, while shifts in resource governance in Zambia and C'te d'Ivoire demonstrate efforts to balance sovereignty with investment needs. Addressing these dynamics requires coordinated governance reforms, strategic international engagement, and targeted socio-economic interventions.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Escalating Conflicts and Resource Diplomacy Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 17 - (17-01-2025)
- Corruption, Economic Volatility, and Post-Colonial Tensions Define Africa's Geopolitical Dynamics on January 16 - (16-01-2025)
- Governance Crises and Strategic Resource Shifts Define Africa's Geopolitical Challenges on January 15 - (15-01-2025)
- Resource Conflicts and Economic Volatility Shape Africa's Geopolitical Dynamics on January 14 - (14-01-2025)
- Governance Crises, Insurgency, and Regional Cooperation Define Africa's Geopolitical Trajectory on January 13 - (13-01-2025)
- Economic Reforms and Governance Struggles Define Africa's Geopolitical Outlook for the Week Ending January 12 - (12-01-2025)
- Ethiopia's Economic Milestone and Nigeria's Anti-Corruption Gains Define Africa's Geopolitical Narrative on January 12 - (11-01-2025)
- Sudan's Humanitarian Collapse and Africa's Governance Crises Shape the Geopolitical Landscape on January 10 - (10-01-2025)
