Global Risk Indexes (15-01-2025)

Global 96 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 (-1 ▼)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 90 (+3 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 94 (+3 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Reshaped U.S.-Cuba Relations, Migration Crises, and Trade Tensions Define the Americas' Strategic Outlook

U.S.-Cuba relations undergo a significant reset, reshaping regional geopolitical alignments. President Biden's announcement to remove Cuba from the terrorism blacklist and ease sanctions represents a pivotal shift, potentially restoring the Obama-era d'tente. Simultaneously, Cuba's release of 553 prisoners signals a conciliatory stance amidst economic turmoil and external pressure. However, these developments risk reversal as President-elect Trump prepares to assume office, with his administration likely to reimpose hardline policies. The long-term success of U.S.-Cuba rapprochement depends on sustained diplomatic engagement, economic reforms in Havana, and mitigating potential backlash from Cuban exile communities in the U.S.

Canada's economic and political landscape faces growing uncertainty amidst U.S. tariff threats and domestic leadership changes. The potential imposition of 25% tariffs by President-elect Trump threatens Canada's economic stability, heavily reliant on U.S. trade. Prime Minister Trudeau's impending resignation adds to the uncertainty, with divergent provincial responses risking national disunity. Ontario and Alberta's opposing stances highlight the challenges of forging a cohesive strategy, as Trudeau's government seeks to balance economic resilience with political cohesion.

Migration crises and socio-economic instability exacerbate governance challenges across the Americas. Haiti's displacement crisis, with over 1 million internally displaced persons, underscores systemic governance failures and escalating violence. The situation is compounded by deportations from neighboring countries, straining humanitarian resources and regional stability. Meanwhile, U.S.-Mexico migration policies reflect the complex interplay of domestic pressures and bilateral relations, as Mexico intensifies enforcement under President Claudia Sheinbaum amidst looming U.S. tariffs.

Resource competition and economic recalibrations highlight the region's strategic importance in a globalized economy. Brazil's orange juice export challenges, driven by climatic and disease factors, illustrate vulnerabilities in agricultural supply chains. At the same time, Peru's Breta'a crude oil gains traction in the U.S., showcasing the Americas' critical role in global energy markets. These trends emphasize the need for sustainable practices and infrastructure resilience to ensure long-term economic viability.

Short-term risks include U.S.-Cuba policy reversals, Canadian trade tensions, and escalating migration pressures. Long-term stability necessitates cohesive governance, robust multilateral cooperation, and proactive economic diversification strategies to navigate these interconnected challenges effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(15-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating heightened geopolitical pressures, economic uncertainties, and governance challenges. U.S.-Cuba relations, Canadian trade tensions, and evolving resource and migration dynamics underscore the region's complexity in an increasingly multipolar world.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings