Global Risk Indexes (16-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 97 (-1 ▼)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 89 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 93 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

U.S.-Cuba Reset, Migration Crises, and Trade Disputes Shape the Americas' Strategic Outlook

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas reflects deepening complexities, where regional vulnerabilities intersect with global power dynamics. The ongoing developments underscore systemic challenges and the urgent need for cohesive, multilateral strategies.

U.S.-Cuba relations are undergoing a critical recalibration with far-reaching implications. President Biden's decision to remove Cuba from the terrorism blacklist and ease sanctions marks a significant policy shift. This move, aimed at restoring ties disrupted during the Trump era, coincides with Cuba's release of 553 prisoners, showcasing a diplomatic thaw. However, the incoming Trump administration's likely reversal of these policies creates uncertainty, potentially stalling Cuba's economic recovery and its reintegration into global systems. The role of the Vatican in facilitating the prisoner release highlights the importance of multilateral engagement in resolving entrenched political divides.

Canada faces escalating economic and political challenges as U.S. protectionism intensifies. The proposed 25% tariff on Canadian goods by President-elect Trump threatens to disrupt trade, particularly given Canada's reliance on the U.S. for 75% of its exports. The ongoing leadership transition following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation compounds the uncertainty, with provinces such as Alberta resisting unified national strategies. These dynamics underscore Canada's urgent need to diversify its trade partnerships and bolster internal political cohesion.

Haiti's governance collapse and migration crises epitomize the region's systemic vulnerabilities. With over 1 million internally displaced persons and escalating gang violence, Haiti is at the epicenter of a humanitarian catastrophe. The partial restoration of internet services by Digicel amidst armed conflicts highlights the fragility of critical infrastructure. Regional responses, including deportations and border enforcement, emphasize the lack of coordinated humanitarian strategies, exacerbating social and economic pressures across the Caribbean and Central America.

Resource dependencies and economic recalibrations reveal both vulnerabilities and strategic opportunities for the region. Argentina's anti-dumping reforms aim to reduce inflation and promote competition, reflecting President Javier Milei's libertarian agenda. Similarly, Brazil's renewable energy ambitions, highlighted by offshore wind projects, underscore the region's potential as a leader in sustainable development. However, challenges in agricultural supply chains, exemplified by Brazil's orange juice export crisis, illustrate the importance of resilience in the face of climatic and disease-related disruptions.

Migration pressures and resource competition remain focal points of geopolitical contention. The U.S.-Mexico collaboration on border enforcement reflects the complexities of balancing economic dependencies with domestic political narratives. Simultaneously, Peru's emergence as a key crude oil supplier to the U.S. highlights the Americas' role in global energy markets, underscoring the need for sustainable extraction practices and infrastructure investments to maintain competitive advantages.

Short-term risks are driven by U.S.-Cuba policy volatility, Canadian trade disputes, and escalating migration crises. Long-term stability requires comprehensive governance reforms, enhanced multilateral cooperation, and strategic investments in sustainable development to address systemic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(16-01-2025)

The Americas are under intense geopolitical and economic pressure, shaped by the resurgence of U.S.-Cuba relations, Canadian trade tensions, systemic governance failures, and escalating migration crises. The interplay of these dynamics within a globalized economy amplifies both risks and opportunities for the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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