Global Risk Indexes (20-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 (-1 ▼)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 (+1 ▲)
Africa 93 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 95 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific on Edge: Leadership Crises, Strategic Realignments, and Economic Shifts Define Regional Tensions

The Asia-Pacific continues to experience intensifying complexities, as political turbulence, economic maneuvering, and strategic realignments reshape the region's geopolitical and economic landscape.

South Korea's Governance Crisis and Economic Response: President Yoon Suk Yeol's detention, coupled with violent protests from his supporters, underscores the deepening political instability in South Korea. The detention, now extended for 20 days, exacerbates divisions, eroding public trust and creating a governance vacuum. Economically, Seoul has pledged a record 360 trillion won in financing support for exporters, signaling proactive measures to mitigate potential fallout from the incoming Trump administration's protectionist trade policies. However, domestic political instability could weaken South Korea's strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific amidst growing regional tensions.

China's Dual Challenges: Demographic Crisis and Strategic Posturing: Beijing's continued population decline highlights a structural demographic crisis with long-term implications for its economic growth and labor market stability. Meanwhile, its imposition of anti-dumping duties on plastics imports from the U.S. and EU reflects a protectionist stance aimed at bolstering domestic industries. This aligns with its broader strategy of economic resilience amidst global trade uncertainties. Diplomatic outreach, including initiatives to improve cross-strait perceptions via tourism, illustrates Beijing's use of soft power, even as it intensifies efforts to consolidate influence in contested areas like the South China Sea.

Philippines and U.S. Deepen Maritime Cooperation: Joint maritime exercises between the Philippines and the U.S. underline their increasingly robust security partnership. These activities, involving advanced military assets, serve as a direct countermeasure to China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. Manila's criticism of the persistent presence of Chinese vessels in its maritime zone, including the \monster ship,\ emphasizes the escalating contest for sovereignty. The trilateral cooperation with Japan and the U.S. highlights a collective push to uphold international law, although the risk of miscalculation remains high.

ASEAN's Frustration with Myanmar's Junta: As Malaysia assumes ASEAN's chairmanship, the bloc has reaffirmed its decision to bar Myanmar's generals from high-level meetings. Calls for the junta to prioritize a ceasefire over elections underscore the mounting impatience with Myanmar's failure to implement the ASEAN peace plan. The civil war, coupled with worsening humanitarian conditions, remains a significant regional concern, with nearly 20 million people requiring aid.

Economic Realignments Amid Global Trade Uncertainty: Taiwanese manufacturers' plans to relocate operations to the U.S., particularly Texas, highlight the ripple effects of President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs on global imports. This shift reflects broader efforts by Taiwanese companies to diversify supply chains while maintaining competitiveness in high-tech sectors. However, Taiwan's ongoing budgetary crisis, driven by opposition-proposed cuts, underscores the domestic challenges that could impact its national security and economic resilience.

Indonesia's Popularity Surge for President Prabowo: President Prabowo Subianto's approval rating of 81% after 100 days in office reflects public confidence in his delivery of campaign promises, including the ambitious free meal program. However, economists warn that the associated fiscal pressures could undermine Indonesia's economic stability, necessitating careful management to sustain long-term growth.

The Asia-Pacific region's ability to address interconnected governance, security, and economic challenges will determine its trajectory as a key arena of global competition. Effective leadership and multilateral collaboration are essential to navigating this era of heightened complexity and volatility.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(20-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region is navigating a challenging landscape marked by leadership crises, strategic alliances, and economic adjustments. Intersecting governance, security, and economic dynamics amplify the potential for regional instability and demand nuanced responses to manage escalating tensions.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings