Global Risk Indexes (18-01-2025)

Global 97 (+1 ▲)
MENA 96 (-1 ▼)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 93 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Migration Crises, Trade Uncertainties, and Resource Realignments Shape the Americas' Strategic Challenges

The geopolitical and economic landscape of the Americas is undergoing significant shifts, shaped by resource politics, internal governance challenges, and global trade tensions. Recent developments highlight the region's growing importance in a multipolar world while exposing systemic vulnerabilities.

Argentina's economic turnaround reflects the potential of strategic reforms but reveals underlying fragilities. President Javier Milei's austerity measures, combined with improved weather and eased currency controls, have driven Argentina's largest trade surplus in history. Yet, analysts warn of a narrowing surplus as import growth accelerates, reflecting the challenges of sustaining long-term trade performance amidst economic recovery. Argentina's budget surplus, a first in over a decade, highlights fiscal discipline but underscores the precarious balance of managing inflation and fostering inclusive growth.

Resource realignments underscore the Americas' pivotal role in global supply chains. The U.S. Department of Energy's expanded $996 million loan for the Rhyolite Ridge lithium project signals a decisive step in reducing reliance on Chinese imports. This move aligns with broader initiatives to bolster the U.S.'s critical mineral supply chain but raises questions about infrastructure resilience and environmental impacts. Similarly, Codelco's discussions with Saudi Arabia highlight Chile's ambitions to leverage its copper dominance amidst rising demand for green technologies. These developments underscore the strategic importance of the Americas in the global energy transition.

Migration crises across the region expose deep-seated governance challenges and social vulnerabilities. Haiti's humanitarian disaster, with over a million displaced, and escalating deportations under President-elect Trump, exacerbate social tensions and regional instability. Nicaragua's controversial paramilitary force reflects the deepening authoritarian trend under President Daniel Ortega, adding to regional security concerns. U.S.-Mexico migration enforcement highlights the complexities of balancing economic ties with domestic political pressures, further complicating bilateral relations.

Brazil's political and security challenges illustrate systemic risks amidst economic recalibration. High interest rates and fiscal reforms reflect efforts to stabilize Brazil's economy, but gang violence in Rondonia underscores the deteriorating security environment. The rise of Comando Vermelho's influence in the Amazon region illustrates how criminal organizations exploit governance vacuums, necessitating integrated security frameworks to restore order and confidence.

Short-term risks include U.S.-Canada trade disputes, migration pressures, and resource-driven economic adjustments. Long-term stability requires cohesive governance, sustainable resource development, and proactive multilateral collaboration to address these interconnected challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(18-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating an intricate web of challenges where political polarization, resource dependencies, and migration crises interact with external pressures. Strategic foresight and multilateral collaboration are critical to mitigating the systemic vulnerabilities evident across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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