Global Risk Indexes (19-01-2025)

Global 96 (-1 ▼)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 92 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 95 (-2 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Systemic Governance Failures and Global Rivalries Define the Americas' Strategic Trajectory

Geopolitical tensions, resource realignments, and governance crises dominate the Americas' strategic landscape, underlining its critical role in a multipolar global order. The developments this week highlight the region's vulnerabilities and opportunities amidst evolving global dynamics.

Migration crises across the Americas reveal entrenched governance failures and deepen regional instability. Haiti's humanitarian disaster and escalating deportations from the U.S. exemplify the systemic inability to address root causes of migration. Nicaragua's paramilitary force under Daniel Ortega institutionalizes repression, further destabilizing the region and highlighting the interplay between authoritarian governance and socio-political upheaval. The U.S.-Mexico collaboration on migration enforcement, while alleviating immediate pressures, risks exacerbating long-term regional fragilities.

Resource competition underscores the Americas' strategic importance amidst the global energy transition. The U.S. Department of Energy's investment in the Rhyolite Ridge lithium project signals a decisive effort to counter China's dominance in critical minerals. Meanwhile, Argentina's trade surplus, driven by economic reforms and improved conditions, showcases the potential of resource-led growth, though its sustainability remains uncertain. Chile's strategic copper diplomacy with Saudi Arabia and Peru's expanding crude oil exports illustrate the region's essential role in global energy markets while emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and governance reforms.

Trade tensions and political transitions amplify economic uncertainties in Canada and Mexico. U.S. protectionism, including proposed tariffs targeting Canadian exports, poses significant risks to North American trade. Canada's retaliatory measures and leadership uncertainty, coupled with Mexico's pivot away from Chinese imports, reflect a broader realignment of trade strategies amidst global supply chain disruptions. These dynamics underscore the need for cohesive regional policies to sustain economic stability.

Political polarization and governance challenges continue to shape the region's trajectory. Venezuela's ongoing political turmoil and Brazil's security crises highlight the systemic risks posed by governance failures. Brazil's economic recalibrations, juxtaposed with gang violence in the Amazon, exemplify the delicate balance between fostering growth and maintaining stability. Argentina's austerity-driven recovery underscores the broader challenge of implementing fiscal discipline amidst socio-economic fragilities.

Short-term risks include trade disputes, escalating migration pressures, and security challenges across key nations. Over the long term, sustainable growth and regional stability require governance reform, multilateral cooperation, and strategic alignment with evolving global trends.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(19-01-2025)

The Americas are facing an intricate convergence of geopolitical tensions, governance challenges, and economic vulnerabilities. The week's developments highlight the region's pivotal role in global resource competition, the urgency of addressing migration crises, and the complexities of navigating trade disputes amidst political transitions and systemic governance failures.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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