Global Risk Indexes (23-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 93 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Proxy Conflicts, Resource Politics, and U.S. Policy Shifts Amplify MENA Geopolitical Instability

The MENA region continues to be a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions, shaped by resource rivalries, shifting U.S. foreign policy, and entrenched conflicts. These developments signal a volatile landscape with far-reaching implications for global stability.

The re-designation of Yemen's Houthi movement as a terrorist organization marks a significant escalation in U.S. policy. President Trump's move reinstates harsher penalties on the Iran-aligned group, citing their sustained attacks on Red Sea shipping and U.S. personnel. While the designation aims to curb Houthi capabilities, it risks exacerbating Yemen's humanitarian crisis by disrupting vital imports. The Houthis' recent signaling of scaled-back attacks in the Red Sea contrasts with their broader alignment with Iranian regional ambitions, reflecting the complex interplay of local and international dynamics in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia's deepened economic ties with the U.S. signal a strategic alignment amidst heightened regional competition. The Crown Prince's announcement of $600 billion in investments underscores Riyadh's intent to capitalize on Trump's business-friendly policies. This economic diplomacy reflects Saudi ambitions to secure U.S. backing against perceived threats from Iran and enhance its role as a key player in global energy and trade politics.

Energy and resource politics continue to dominate the MENA strategic landscape. Saudi Aramco's purchase of U.S. WTI Midland crude demonstrates Riyadh's strategy to expand its influence in global oil markets. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran tensions over sanctions and the strategic Strait of Hormuz remain critical to understanding the region's energy security. These developments underline the interdependence of MENA resource politics with global energy flows.

Proxy conflicts and regional instability remain critical challenges for MENA stability. The U.S. decision to strengthen support for Israel while reducing engagement in broader Middle East peace initiatives risks further polarizing regional dynamics. The Gulf's security environment remains fragile, with Iran's influence in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq continuing to shape local and international responses. The recalibration of U.S. foreign policy under Trump may amplify existing tensions, particularly as the administration intensifies rhetoric against Tehran and its regional proxies.

Short-term risks include heightened maritime insecurity in the Red Sea, increased economic rivalry, and potential spillover effects from U.S.-Iran tensions. Long-term stability requires balanced diplomatic efforts, regional cooperation, and sustainable economic strategies to mitigate these interconnected risks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(23-01-2025)

The MENA region faces escalating tensions driven by resource competition, proxy conflicts, and evolving U.S. policies under President Trump. These dynamics underscore heightened risks to regional stability and global economic interests, particularly in energy and trade security.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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