Global Risk Indexes (21-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 96 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 (-1 ▼)
Africa 94 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 97 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Tensions, Migration Crises, and Resource Politics Reshape the Americas' Strategic Landscape

The Americas are grappling with a volatile mix of trade disputes, migration pressures, and governance challenges that underscore the region's strategic significance in global geopolitics. Recent developments reflect a critical juncture requiring coordinated policy responses and sustainable strategies.

Trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico escalate, threatening economic stability across North America. President Donald Trump's indication of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico raises alarm among businesses, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors heavily reliant on cross-border supply chains. Canada's retaliatory measures on critical minerals amplify economic uncertainties, while Mexico braces for potential inflationary pressures linked to these tariffs. These developments emphasize the urgent need for diplomatic negotiations to safeguard the North American trade ecosystem and mitigate broader economic disruptions.

Migration crises along the U.S.-Mexico border reflect deep governance and humanitarian challenges. The cancellation of CBP One asylum appointments has left thousands of migrants stranded in border cities like Tijuana and Piedras Negras. This abrupt policy shift exacerbates human suffering, complicates U.S.-Mexico relations, and highlights the systemic inadequacies in regional migration management frameworks. Venezuela and Haiti remain at the epicenter of these crises, underscoring the need for comprehensive, multilateral solutions.

Resource politics and environmental policies remain central to regional dynamics. Brazil's veto of legislation weakening Amazon protections represents a victory for environmental advocacy but reveals the persistent tension between economic development and ecological conservation. Meanwhile, Colombia's ongoing violence in its resource-rich regions, including the bombing of the Zijin Mining gold mine, underscores the intersection of resource exploitation, governance gaps, and armed conflict. These developments highlight the critical importance of sustainable resource management to ensure economic and social stability.

U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration signal heightened geopolitical and economic volatility. Reinstating Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism reflects a rollback of prior engagement efforts, straining bilateral relations and potentially complicating regional diplomacy. Furthermore, President Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland and renegotiating control over the Panama Canal evokes nationalist ambitions, which could strain U.S. relations with Latin America and the broader international community.

Short-term risks are dominated by U.S.-led trade disruptions, migration pressures, and regional governance crises. Long-term stability hinges on effective governance reforms, sustainable development policies, and proactive multilateral engagement to address these interconnected challenges comprehensively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(21-01-2025)

The Americas face intensifying geopolitical and economic challenges shaped by escalating trade tensions, systemic governance vulnerabilities, and emerging resource conflicts. These dynamics demand immediate policy interventions and multilateral cooperation to navigate rising uncertainties and mitigate risks effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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