Global Risk Indexes (21-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 96 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 (-1 ▼)
Africa 94 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 97 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Gaza Ceasefire and U.S. Policy Shifts Reshape MENA Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions

January 21, 2025, showcased a region grappling with simultaneous crises and opportunities. The MENA landscape continues to be shaped by efforts to consolidate peace in Gaza, navigate Syria's transition, and address Yemen's maritime security, all underpinned by shifting alliances and external interventions.

The Gaza ceasefire represents a narrow but critical window for stabilization in a deeply fractured region. Despite logistical progress, such as the entry of over 900 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza, systemic barriers to long-term peace remain. The truce, supported by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., is threatened by internal dissent within Israel's coalition and persistent mistrust between stakeholders. Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's resignation highlights ideological rifts that could destabilize the Israeli government. For Gaza, the scale of reconstruction'exacerbated by asbestos contamination in the rubble'underscores the inadequacy of current frameworks. Without a coordinated international reconstruction effort, the crisis could reignite, perpetuating cycles of violence and humanitarian suffering.

Yemen's maritime conflict illustrates the interconnectedness of regional rivalries and global economic security. The Houthis' conditional ceasefire, tied to the Gaza truce's success, reflects their alignment with Iran's Resistance Axis. However, the group's history of breaching agreements and its focus on targeting Israeli-linked vessels amplify skepticism. Maritime disruptions, with 100 attacks since 2023, have already reshaped global shipping routes, elevating costs and insurance premiums. This underscores Yemen's role as a flashpoint in proxy conflicts, with implications for energy security and global trade stability.

Syria's transitional governance highlights the evolving regional power dynamics. The EU's phased easing of sanctions and the U.S.'s exemptions signal cautious engagement with the HTS-led administration. However, Turkey's continued push for Kurdish disarmament complicates the broader reconciliation process. The U.S.-Turkey-SDF triangle remains pivotal, as it influences not only Syria's stability but also the wider regional power balance. Meanwhile, HTS's reliance on fragile reforms limits its capacity to gain broader international recognition, exposing Syria to prolonged instability.

U.S. policy shifts under President Trump emphasize an unrestrained alliance with Israel, with implications reverberating across the region. The lifting of sanctions on settler groups and expanded military aid to Israel embolden its stance, particularly in the West Bank. This alignment risks inflaming Palestinian grievances, undermining the Gaza ceasefire, and exacerbating tensions with neighboring Arab states. Trump's pivot reflects a recalibration of U.S. priorities in the MENA, likely intensifying polarization and reducing the space for multilateral diplomacy.

Strategic Implications: The MENA region remains at a delicate juncture where opportunities for stabilization coexist with significant risks. Gaza's ceasefire provides a momentary reprieve but highlights systemic governance and reconstruction challenges that could reignite hostilities. Yemen's maritime insecurity underscores the risks of proxy conflicts and their global ramifications, particularly for energy security and trade. Syria's transitional governance reflects both progress and fragility, with its stability dependent on inclusive reforms and international engagement. Finally, U.S. policy shifts under Trump are likely to harden divisions, undermining broader peace prospects in the region. These dynamics collectively illustrate a region navigating profound uncertainties, with the potential for escalation looming in the absence of coordinated global strategies.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(21-01-2025)

The MENA region stands at the crossroads of cautious stabilization and enduring volatility. While the Gaza ceasefire provides a fragile framework for de-escalation, entrenched rivalries, evolving U.S. policies, and economic vulnerabilities suggest that systemic risks remain deeply embedded.

Geopolitical Risk Index

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