Crises, Resource Diplomacy, and Global Engagement Define Africa's Geopolitical Trajectory on January 21
Sudan's civil war escalates as RSF drone strikes target critical infrastructure, plunging parts of the country into darkness and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. With over 24 million Sudanese in urgent need of food aid, these attacks highlight the systemic vulnerability of essential services in conflict zones. A sustained international push for ceasefires and humanitarian corridors is critical to mitigating the crisis and preventing further regional destabilization.
Nigeria's telecom tariff hike, a 50% increase approved by the NCC, reflects the economic strain following subsidy removals and naira devaluation. While the move aims to address the telecom industry's rising operational costs, it risks amplifying public dissatisfaction amid soaring inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. To manage these pressures, Nigeria must balance fiscal reforms with robust social safety nets and targeted economic support for vulnerable populations.
South Sudan's escalating tensions with Sudan, driven by riots over ethnically-targeted attacks in El Gezira, underscore the fragility of relations between the two nations. The killing of 16 Sudanese nationals in South Sudan further complicates efforts to maintain stability. Regional bodies like IGAD must step up mediation efforts to prevent a broader spillover of Sudan's conflict into neighboring states.
Zimbabwe's lithium deal progress signals continued foreign investment in Africa's critical mineral sector. The Kuvimba Mining House partnership with two Chinese firms highlights the global scramble for lithium amid the EV boom. However, ensuring these investments translate into local economic benefits requires transparent revenue-sharing agreements and strict environmental safeguards to prevent resource exploitation.
The DRC's lawsuit against Apple subsidiaries for alleged use of conflict minerals reflects growing assertiveness in holding global corporations accountable for resource governance. This case underscores the urgency of addressing exploitative practices in supply chains and leveraging legal mechanisms to demand ethical sourcing. Success here could set a precedent for other resource-rich African nations grappling with similar challenges.
Mozambique's debt restructuring considerations, following post-election unrest, highlight the intersection of governance crises and economic vulnerabilities. The government's acknowledgment of restructuring needs reflects an attempt to stabilize finances, but long-term recovery will require addressing systemic corruption and fostering transparency to rebuild investor confidence.
Strategic Implications: Africa's developments on January 21 illuminate its pivotal role in global economic and security dynamics. From lithium investments in Zimbabwe to conflict-driven challenges in Sudan and South Sudan, the continent's trajectory will hinge on balancing immediate crises with long-term governance reforms. Strengthening regional institutions, fostering equitable resource management, and navigating international partnerships with caution are key to unlocking Africa's potential.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(21-01-2025)
The developments on January 21, 2025, showcase a mix of entrenched challenges and strategic opportunities for Africa. While crises in Sudan, Nigeria, and South Sudan expose governance failures and security vulnerabilities, resource-focused initiatives in Zimbabwe and the DRC underscore the continent's centrality to global economic trends. International engagements from Europe and China further highlight Africa's strategic importance but raise concerns about dependency and equitable partnerships. The path to stability will require governance reforms, regional cooperation, and leveraging global partnerships for sustainable development.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Crises, Resource Diplomacy, and Global Engagement Define Africa's Geopolitical Trajectory on January 21 - (21-01-2025)
- Security Crises, Resource Politics, and Governance Challenges Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 20 - (20-01-2025)
- From Conflict to Opportunity: Africa's Geopolitical Landscape Evolves Amid Governance and Resource Shifts - (19-01-2025)
- From Conflict to Global Partnerships: Africa's Complex Geopolitical Trajectory on January 18 - (18-01-2025)
- Escalating Conflicts and Resource Diplomacy Shape Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 17 - (17-01-2025)
- Corruption, Economic Volatility, and Post-Colonial Tensions Define Africa's Geopolitical Dynamics on January 16 - (16-01-2025)
- Governance Crises and Strategic Resource Shifts Define Africa's Geopolitical Challenges on January 15 - (15-01-2025)
- Resource Conflicts and Economic Volatility Shape Africa's Geopolitical Dynamics on January 14 - (14-01-2025)
