Global Risk Indexes (22-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 (-1 ▼)
APAC 96 (-1 ▼)
Europe 97 (-1 ▼)
Africa 94 ( —)
AMERs 96 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Panama Canal Crisis, U.S.-Latin America Trade Tensions, and Colombian Violence Deepen Regional Instability

Geopolitical tensions and economic vulnerabilities are intensifying across the Americas, driven by escalating disputes over sovereignty, trade, and resource management. Recent developments reveal deepening fractures that threaten regional stability.

The Panama Canal controversy escalates, raising sovereignty and trade concerns. U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated assertions about 'taking back' the Panama Canal have triggered sharp responses from Panama, which has taken the matter to the U.N. Security Council. Panama's leadership, emphasizing the canal's critical role in global trade, strongly refuted Trump's accusations of Chinese influence and vowed to protect its sovereignty. These tensions risk undermining U.S.-Panama relations and disrupting one of the world's most strategic maritime trade routes.

Colombia's internal conflict exacerbates governance challenges and humanitarian crises. Renewed violence by the ELN in the Catatumbo region has displaced over 32,000 people, highlighting the fragility of peace processes under President Gustavo Petro's administration. The reissuance of arrest warrants for ELN leaders, coupled with rising casualties and territorial conflicts, reflects the complex dynamics of governance in resource-rich yet conflict-ridden regions. Colombia's struggles demonstrate the intersection of armed violence and state capacity deficits, with broader implications for regional security.

U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade tensions threaten North American economic integration. President Trump's threats of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have raised alarms across key industries, particularly automotive and agriculture, which rely on seamless cross-border supply chains. Canada's retaliatory measures on critical minerals further underscore the fragility of regional economic agreements, potentially destabilizing the trade framework established under USMCA.

Brazil faces mounting economic and environmental pressures. Uncertainty surrounding Brazil's fiscal stability continues to erode market confidence, with rising interest rates and inflation expectations weighing on Latin America's largest economy. Simultaneously, Brazil's leadership role in COP30 is overshadowed by U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, posing significant challenges to global climate negotiations hosted in Belem later this year. This dual crisis underscores Brazil's delicate balancing act between economic recovery and environmental commitments.

Short-term risks center on migration pressures, trade disputes, and armed conflicts. Long-term stability will depend on effective governance reforms, sustainable resource management, and coordinated diplomatic efforts to address these interconnected challenges.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(22-01-2025)

The Americas are grappling with heightened geopolitical and economic pressures stemming from U.S. policy shifts, regional resource politics, and rising tensions in Colombia and the Panama Canal. These challenges underscore a volatile environment that requires robust diplomatic engagement and multilateral solutions.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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