Global Risk Indexes (23-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 93 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Escalating Trade Wars, Energy Volatility, and Strategic Alliances Shape a Fractured Global Economy

Trade tensions are escalating as protectionist policies dominate global economic discourse. U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union are reshaping supply chains and driving inflationary pressures across critical industries. Multinational companies in sectors such as automotive and technology are reconfiguring operations to mitigate the impact, while retaliatory measures from trading partners risk further fragmentation of global trade flows.

Energy markets remain volatile amidst shifting geopolitical priorities. Brent crude's dip below $80 per barrel reflects concerns over how U.S. energy policies and Trump's tariff threats will affect global demand. The uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Russia sanctions, paired with Saudi Arabia's strategic WTI purchases and efforts to strengthen ties with the U.S., underscore the fluidity of energy alliances. Libya's ambitious production plans, although promising, remain vulnerable to political instability and infrastructural shortcomings.

China's economic strategy reveals a dual focus on mitigating domestic challenges and expanding global influence. The suspension of Brazilian soybean imports by Chinese authorities highlights its push for diversified trade partnerships amid demographic decline and uneven consumption recovery. Meanwhile, China's revival of the Belt and Road Initiative and investments in regional technologies aim to solidify its influence as it navigates an increasingly restrictive global trade environment.

Structural and fiscal challenges in advanced and emerging markets are amplifying systemic vulnerabilities. Italy's mounting debt burden and slow eurozone growth underscore the fragility of European economies. South Korea's near-stagnant GDP growth, driven by political instability and reduced consumer demand, reflects broader risks in export-dependent economies amid trade uncertainties. Argentina's negotiations with the IMF highlight the critical need for fiscal reforms in the face of prolonged economic stagnation.

Technological decoupling accelerates as global supply chains realign. Taiwanese firms' relocation of production away from China illustrates the shifting dynamics of global technology ecosystems. These moves are catalyzed by U.S. tariffs and China's strategic pivot toward indigenous innovation, signifying a deeper fragmentation of global tech markets.

Strategic adaptation is essential for stakeholders navigating this fragmented landscape. Policymakers must prioritize securing critical resources, diversifying trade and investment partnerships, and fostering multilateral collaboration to address systemic risks. For investors, opportunities lie in sectors poised for growth, such as renewable energy, advanced technology, and critical minerals, which align with the structural shifts in the global economy.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(23-01-2025)

The global landscape is becoming increasingly fractured due to intensifying trade wars, energy market disruptions, and the growing influence of regional powers seeking strategic dominance. Short-term risks focus on inflationary pressures, energy security challenges, and currency volatility, while long-term risks are shaped by demographic crises, technological decoupling, and resource competition. Policymakers and investors must navigate these systemic risks through adaptive strategies in an evolving multipolar world order.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings