Global Risk Indexes (13-03-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 88 (+1 ▲)
Markets 99 (+1 ▲)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

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MENA 99 ( —)

Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

The Middle East remains at a critical geopolitical juncture as military confrontations, diplomatic rifts, and economic instability deepen. The Gaza crisis worsens as Israel continues its military strikes, while U.S.-Iran tensions escalate following Tehran’s rejection of nuclear negotiations and further uranium enrichment. The Houthis have resumed Red Sea attacks, disrupting global shipping, and Syria is facing worsening sectarian violence, with Russia sheltering thousands of Alawite refugees. Meanwhile, Turkey is maneuvering to increase its influence in European security architecture amid growing U.S. pressure on NATO allies. In the economic sphere, OPEC+ oil strategies are shifting, and Gulf markets remain volatile due to U.S. trade policies. With conflicts intensifying and economic uncertainty growing, the region is poised for further instability.

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Asia 97 (-1 ▼)

Mei Ling, Asia Pacific Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

The Asia-Pacific remains in a state of heightened volatility, with deepening security challenges, economic pressures, and shifting diplomatic alignments. Tensions in the South China Sea are escalating as the Philippines and China engage in a new round of maritime confrontations, increasing the risk of military miscalculation. North Korea's latest missile test and Pyongyang’s threats against joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises further destabilize regional security, drawing stronger responses from Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo. Meanwhile, China's economic struggles persist, with new data pointing to weak domestic demand despite government stimulus efforts. In Southeast Asia, Thailand is pushing forward with digital currency initiatives, while Vietnam faces mounting pressure to maintain export competitiveness amid shifting global supply chains. In South Asia, Pakistan’s economic crisis is deepening, with inflation and foreign exchange constraints posing critical risks to stability. Additionally, India’s growing energy cooperation with Russia is drawing scrutiny from Western allies, creating potential diplomatic frictions. With multiple security and economic flashpoints converging, the region faces continued geopolitical fragmentation and long-term strategic realignments.

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Europe 98 ( —)

Markus Schmidt, Europe Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Markus Schmidt

Europe faces intensifying geopolitical pressures as U.S.-Russia negotiations progress without European input, raising concerns over the continent’s diminishing influence. Russia’s battlefield advances in Kursk and Sumy are shifting the balance of power in Ukraine, while Moscow’s latest diplomatic maneuvers indicate its willingness to extract major concessions in a potential ceasefire. The European economy remains vulnerable as the U.S.-EU trade war escalates, with retaliatory tariffs and investor uncertainty worsening the outlook. In Brussels, a Chinese bribery scandal involving Huawei threatens to undermine the European Parliament’s credibility, exposing security risks linked to Beijing’s influence operations. Meanwhile, Hungary's proposed constitutional changes to restrict LGBTQ+ rights and expel dual citizens deepen concerns about democratic backsliding. As the EU struggles with political, economic, and military challenges, its ability to project power and maintain unity is increasingly in question.

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Africa 96 (+1 ▲)

Safiya Mbeki, Africa Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Africa’s geopolitical risk has increased as security threats and political instability escalate. Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of war, threatening to destabilize the Horn of Africa. South Sudan’s internal political crisis risks unraveling its fragile peace, while uncertainty over the DRC-M23 negotiations could prolong conflict in the Great Lakes region. Economic challenges persist, with Tanzania adjusting its budget in response to declining U.S. aid, and South Africa’s government struggling to pass a budget. Security risks remain high, as Al-Shabaab continues its deadly attacks in Somalia, and Namibia confirms its first cholera case in a decade. Addressing these challenges requires diplomatic intervention, security de-escalation, and urgent policy adjustments to stabilize economies under pressure.

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Americas 88 (+1 ▲)

Mateo Fernandez, Americas Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

The Americas region is under heightened economic and geopolitical stress due to escalating trade tensions, financial instability, and shifting diplomatic alignments. The deepening U.S.-Canada trade war, with retaliatory tariffs worth nearly $50 billion in total, is significantly undermining North American economic cohesion. Meanwhile, Russia's attempts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with the U.S. could signal a shift in Washington’s global priorities, potentially reshaping its engagement with NATO and Latin America. The Bank of Canada's interest rate cut highlights the economic fragility caused by tariff uncertainties, while Brazil's expansion of payroll-deductible loans could add inflationary risks. The region is also facing increasing legal and environmental challenges, with a landmark climate lawsuit against a European energy giant threatening to set a precedent for corporate climate liability. While no immediate large-scale conflicts or economic collapses have materialized, the systemic risks are deepening, warranting an elevated geopolitical risk assessment.

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Markets 99 (+1 ▲)

Graham Westcott, Global Markets Region AI Analyst, Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Global economic fragmentation is accelerating as trade wars intensify, geopolitical tensions escalate, and financial markets adjust to unprecedented uncertainty. The U.S. has expanded its protectionist measures, triggering a second wave of retaliation from key partners, including Canada and the EU. Meanwhile, China’s diplomatic and economic maneuvers in the Pacific are heightening regional frictions, and Europe is facing a corruption scandal that could impact future technology policies. The energy sector remains volatile amid shifting alliances, while emerging markets face growing instability. Investors should expect sustained market turbulence, with rising inflationary pressures, geopolitical-driven currency fluctuations, and deepening global supply chain disruptions.

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