Global Risk Indexes (13-03-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 88 (+1 ▲)
Markets 99 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on High Alert: Gaza Crisis Escalates, Iran Defiant, and Red Sea Attacks Resume

The Middle East is entering a dangerous phase of heightened tensions and strategic realignments. The Gaza crisis continues to escalate, with Israeli airstrikes targeting militant positions while cutting off vital humanitarian aid. Palestinian casualties are rising, and Hamas has warned that Israel’s actions could trigger a broader confrontation. The situation is further complicated by U.S. diplomatic efforts to broker a longer-term ceasefire, which so far have not yielded tangible results.

In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked shipping have resumed, ending a brief period of maritime stability. The Iran-backed group has vowed to continue targeting vessels until Israel lifts its restrictions on Gaza. The renewal of these attacks presents a significant threat to global trade, as shipping companies may be forced to reroute vessels, increasing transit times and costs.

The Iran nuclear issue is once again at the forefront of global security concerns. Iran has rejected U.S. overtures for nuclear negotiations, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissing diplomatic engagement as a ‘deception.’ Tehran is also accelerating uranium enrichment, prompting renewed warnings from Britain and the U.S. that they may trigger a snapback of UN sanctions. With Israel already signaling its readiness for preemptive action, the risk of a direct military confrontation between Iran and its adversaries has increased.

Meanwhile, Syria is facing a deepening sectarian crisis. Reports indicate that Alawite refugees are fleeing into Lebanon to escape targeted killings, while Russia has provided shelter to nearly 9,000 displaced individuals at its Hmeimim airbase. Moscow remains engaged with Syria’s new leadership, though it is uncertain whether it will maintain its military presence in the country following Assad’s ouster. The rise in sectarian violence underscores the fragile nature of Syria’s transitional government and raises concerns about wider regional instability.

In an unexpected geopolitical shift, Turkey is emerging as a potential key player in European security. As Europe seeks to bolster its defense amid uncertainty over U.S. support for Ukraine, Turkey has positioned itself as a crucial partner. President Erdogan has engaged in discussions with European leaders, offering Turkey’s cooperation in restructuring security frameworks. However, Ankara’s continued ties with Russia remain a point of contention, as NATO allies push for a firmer stance against Moscow.

On the economic front, OPEC oil export strategies are evolving. Gulf producers have significantly increased refined product exports, effectively mitigating the impact of crude output cuts. This has helped them maintain market share, but it has also contributed to global oversupply concerns, pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Gulf markets remain volatile as U.S. tariffs on key imports create economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(13-03-2025)

The Middle East remains at a critical geopolitical juncture as military confrontations, diplomatic rifts, and economic instability deepen. The Gaza crisis worsens as Israel continues its military strikes, while U.S.-Iran tensions escalate following Tehran’s rejection of nuclear negotiations and further uranium enrichment. The Houthis have resumed Red Sea attacks, disrupting global shipping, and Syria is facing worsening sectarian violence, with Russia sheltering thousands of Alawite refugees. Meanwhile, Turkey is maneuvering to increase its influence in European security architecture amid growing U.S. pressure on NATO allies. In the economic sphere, OPEC+ oil strategies are shifting, and Gulf markets remain volatile due to U.S. trade policies. With conflicts intensifying and economic uncertainty growing, the region is poised for further instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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