Global Risk Indexes (09-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 95 ( —)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Brink: Gaza War Looms, U.S.-Iran Standoff Deepens, and Red Sea Tensions Escalate

The Middle East is witnessing an alarming escalation of military, diplomatic, and economic crises, pushing the region toward a potential tipping point. The fragile Gaza ceasefire is nearing collapse, as Israel continues its military operations while Hamas demands a new agreement that includes long-term guarantees. A deadly Israeli drone strike in Gaza has fueled concerns that a return to full-scale conflict is imminent.

Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran tensions have reached a critical phase. President Donald Trump has proposed nuclear negotiations but simultaneously warned that Iran must choose between diplomacy or military confrontation. Washington is reviewing all sanctions waivers and considering inspections of Iranian oil tankers, a move that could severely impact Iran’s economy and trigger Iranian retaliation.

In Yemen, the Houthis have issued a four-day ultimatum to resume attacks on Israeli-linked shipping unless Israel lifts its blockade on Gaza. Given their past record of targeting vessels, this development raises serious concerns over Red Sea security and the potential disruption of global trade routes.

In Syria, the country is facing its worst internal security crisis since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Pro-Assad militias launched deadly attacks against government forces in Jableh, resulting in over 180 casualties. This raises fears that a broader insurgency against the new government is gaining momentum.

In Sudan, the government has taken an unprecedented step by filing a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice, accusing Abu Dhabi of supporting genocide in Darfur. If the case moves forward, it could significantly damage Sudan’s relations with Gulf states, potentially reshaping regional alliances.

On the economic front, Gulf financial markets remain under pressure, with Saudi Aramco experiencing profit declines while considering a strategic bid for BP’s Castrol business. Meanwhile, ADNOC is exploring an international IPO for its investment arm, XRG, which could make it one of the world’s largest publicly listed energy firms.

Gaza Ceasefire Nears Collapse

With ongoing Israeli military operations and Hamas pushing for a new ceasefire framework, fears of renewed war in Gaza are growing. A recent Israeli drone strike has escalated tensions further.

Trump’s Dual Strategy on Iran

The U.S. administration is pressuring Iran with the offer of nuclear talks while simultaneously increasing economic and military threats, including potential oil tanker inspections. Tehran’s response will be critical in determining whether tensions escalate further.

Houthis Threaten Red Sea Shipping

Yemen’s Houthis have warned that they will resume naval attacks unless Israel allows humanitarian aid into Gaza within four days. This could severely impact maritime trade in the region.

Syria Faces Renewed Insurgency

Clashes between pro-Assad fighters and government forces have resulted in heavy casualties, raising concerns that Syria is slipping back into widespread conflict.

Sudan’s Legal Battle Against UAE

The Sudanese government’s decision to take the UAE to the ICJ over its alleged role in Darfur’s violence could have major diplomatic ramifications in the Gulf.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East remains on the edge of a major escalation. The Gaza ceasefire is at risk of total collapse, U.S.-Iran tensions are reaching a decisive point, and the Houthis' ultimatum threatens Red Sea security. Syria’s renewed internal conflict and Sudan’s legal case against the UAE add further instability to an already volatile region. Economic pressures continue to mount, with oil market volatility and financial uncertainty in the Gulf. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these crises escalate into broader conflicts or remain contained within diplomatic negotiations.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(09-03-2025)

The Middle East remains at extreme geopolitical risk as multiple conflicts, diplomatic crises, and economic pressures converge. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, with Israel intensifying military operations while Hamas and its allies issue warnings of renewed confrontation. U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating, with Trump’s administration simultaneously offering negotiations and threatening military action, including potential oil tanker inspections. The Houthis have issued a four-day ultimatum, threatening Red Sea shipping lanes unless humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza. In Syria, the new government is facing one of its most serious internal security challenges, as pro-Assad fighters launch coordinated attacks on government forces. Sudan’s case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice could trigger wider diplomatic rifts in the Gulf. Meanwhile, the economic situation across the region is worsening, with OPEC+ production increases failing to stabilize oil markets, Gulf financial markets suffering from U.S. trade uncertainty, and ADNOC considering a major international listing. With deepening military conflicts, diplomatic realignments, and economic instability, the Middle East remains on the brink of further escalation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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