Global Risk Indexes (03-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 95 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Edge: Gaza Ceasefire Crisis, Kurdish Peace Process, and U.S.-Israel Military Escalation

The Middle East is facing an increasingly precarious geopolitical landscape. The Gaza ceasefire is at immediate risk, with Hamas rejecting Israel’s proposed extension while Tel Aviv imposes a total blockade on aid shipments. As negotiations stall, fears of renewed military operations grow, especially with tensions escalating in Rafah and Khan Younis.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Kurdish peace process has entered a critical phase. The PKK has declared an immediate ceasefire following Abdullah Öcalan’s call for disarmament, marking a potential turning point in a decades-long conflict. However, President Erdogan has warned that military operations will continue unless the process leads to complete disbandment of the group.

At the same time, the U.S.-Israel military alliance has deepened, with Washington approving nearly $12 billion in new military aid, including $3 billion in emergency weapons sales. This move bypassed congressional oversight and eliminated accountability measures for how U.S. weapons are used in conflict zones, raising concerns over escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon.

Economic uncertainty continues to plague the region. Iraq’s energy crisis has worsened, as Kurdish oil firms refuse to resume exports despite Baghdad’s calls for compliance. Turkey has reiterated its desire to operate the Iraq-Turkey pipeline at full capacity, but disputes between Erbil and Baghdad continue to stall progress.

In Syria, the new government is renegotiating its military agreements with Russia, raising questions about Moscow’s long-term presence in the country. While Damascus appears willing to maintain Russian bases, it is demanding financial compensation and the renegotiation of military cooperation agreements.

Iran’s economic struggles have intensified, with the ousting of its Economy Minister amid a severe currency crisis. The Iranian rial has lost nearly half of its value since August, fueling inflation and increasing public dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, Washington has intensified its economic pressure on Tehran, reinstating its ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions campaign.

In contrast, Qatar continues to attract major Western investment firms, positioning itself as a financial hub for the Middle East and North Africa. U.S.-based Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has announced plans to open an office in Doha, joining a growing list of firms shifting their focus toward Gulf markets.

Gaza Ceasefire Crisis Deepens

Israel has imposed a total blockade on Gaza, preventing food, fuel, and other supplies from entering the territory. Hamas has denounced the move as ‘blackmail,’ calling on mediators Egypt and Qatar to intervene. With Israeli forces reinforcing positions near Rafah, the risk of renewed military action is high.

Turkey’s Kurdish Peace Process Faces Uncertainty

The PKK’s announcement of a ceasefire is a significant development, yet Erdogan has indicated that Ankara will not ease its military operations unless the group fully disbands. If negotiations fail, a return to violence in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria remains likely.

U.S.-Israel Military Ties Strengthen

Washington has approved new emergency weapons sales to Israel, including thousands of precision-guided bombs and demolition kits. The Trump administration has also rescinded a Biden-era order requiring the U.S. to report potential violations of international law by allies using American-made weapons, raising concerns about unchecked military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iraq’s Oil Dispute Remains Unresolved

Despite Baghdad’s assurances that oil exports from Kurdistan will resume, Kurdish energy firms continue to resist, citing unresolved financial disputes. Turkey has reiterated its readiness to reopen the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, but Erbil’s concerns over revenue-sharing remain a major obstacle.

Syria’s Military Agreements with Russia Under Review

Damascus is renegotiating its military agreements with Moscow, seeking better terms for the continued presence of Russian forces. While the new government is open to maintaining Russian bases, it is demanding financial compensation and a restructuring of defense cooperation.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is at a pivotal moment, with the Gaza ceasefire at risk, the Kurdish peace process facing uncertainty, and U.S.-Israel military cooperation escalating. Iraq’s unresolved oil disputes, Syria’s shifting alliances, and Iran’s worsening economic crisis add to regional instability. The coming days will be critical in determining whether these tensions lead to renewed conflict or fragile diplomatic breakthroughs.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(03-03-2025)

The Middle East is experiencing heightened geopolitical volatility as conflicts, diplomatic realignments, and economic crises unfold simultaneously. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, with Hamas rejecting Israel’s proposed extension while Israel imposes a total blockade on aid. Turkey’s Kurdish peace process has reached a decisive moment as the PKK declares a ceasefire, yet Ankara remains cautious and military operations continue. The U.S.-Israel military alliance has strengthened with new emergency weapons sales, while Washington has removed accountability measures for how its arms are used in conflict zones. Iraq’s oil crisis persists, as Kurdish oil firms refuse to comply with Baghdad’s demands to resume exports. In Syria, the new government is renegotiating its military agreements with Russia, creating uncertainty about Moscow’s long-term role in the region. Iran faces growing economic instability, with its Economy Minister ousted amid a currency crisis and a worsening inflationary spiral. Meanwhile, Qatar continues to attract major Western investment firms, positioning itself as a key financial hub. With multiple conflicts, economic pressures, and diplomatic realignments, the region remains at its highest level of geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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