Global Risk Indexes (03-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 95 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Global Economic Instability Worsens: U.S.-China Trade War Expands, Energy Markets Face Disruptions, and Financial Markets Struggle

The global economic and financial landscape is experiencing rapid destabilization as geopolitical tensions escalate. Trade wars, energy supply disruptions, and financial market volatility are converging to create a highly uncertain economic environment.

U.S.-China Trade Conflict Intensifies: Supply Chain Realignments Accelerate

The Trump administration has expanded its economic offensive against China, announcing new restrictions on Chinese semiconductor exports while tightening enforcement of technology bans. In retaliation, China has restricted exports of lithium and other critical minerals, targeting industries vital to the U.S. defense and technology sectors.

These moves have deepened global supply chain disruptions, with multinational corporations scrambling to reallocate production to Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America. Meanwhile, Chinese tech stocks have suffered steep declines, and the yuan has depreciated as capital outflows from China accelerate.

Energy Market Volatility: Oil Supply Risks Rise as Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

Oil prices remain highly volatile as global energy markets react to rising geopolitical instability. Brent crude has surged above $92 per barrel following the latest U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, further tightening global supply.

Meanwhile, Europe faces renewed energy insecurity as Ukraine has launched additional drone strikes on Russian-controlled oil infrastructure, disrupting crude flows. In response, Moscow has threatened to cut energy exports to EU nations seen as supporting Kyiv.

Adding to the pressure, Saudi Arabia is leading discussions within OPEC on potential production cuts, signaling its intention to keep oil prices elevated amid global economic uncertainty.

Financial Markets Under Pressure: Gold Rallies, Emerging Markets Struggle

Financial markets are grappling with heightened volatility. Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices to a new record of $3,325 per ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, putting further pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Brazilian real and Indian rupee.

Global equity markets remain under strain, with Wall Street seeing continued declines as investors react to trade war uncertainties and inflationary risks. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has hinted at potential interest rate adjustments to counteract market instability.

Looking Ahead: A Period of Structural Economic Realignment

The global economy is no longer governed by free-market principles but by geopolitical rivalries and economic nationalism. Trade flows, energy markets, and financial systems are being restructured based on strategic interests rather than economic efficiency.

For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the ability to navigate geopolitical risks, secure alternative supply chains, and hedge against financial instability will be essential in the coming months.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(03-03-2025)

The global economy is becoming increasingly unstable as trade wars, energy disruptions, and financial volatility intensify. The U.S.-China confrontation is escalating into a full-scale economic and technological decoupling, with new trade restrictions and retaliatory measures disrupting global supply chains. Energy markets remain highly volatile as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe drive oil price fluctuations. Financial markets are under pressure, with the U.S. dollar strengthening against emerging market currencies, capital outflows increasing, and gold prices continuing their rally as investors seek safe-haven assets. As the global economic order fractures further, protectionism, inflationary risks, and financial instability are likely to define the coming months.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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