Global Risk Indexes (03-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 95 (-3 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Financial Contagion, and Security Clashes Drive the Americas Toward Structural Instability

The Americas remain entrenched in a cycle of worsening geopolitical instability, as economic fragmentation, financial distress, and security crises continue to intensify. Today’s developments highlight the region’s ongoing transformation toward a multipolar economic and security order.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to deepen economic decoupling. Mexico and Canada have taken additional steps to reduce their reliance on U.S. trade by strengthening agreements with China and the EU. Mexico is accelerating its integration into Chinese supply chains in key sectors such as energy and manufacturing, while Canada is diversifying its export markets to mitigate exposure to U.S. economic policies. This ongoing shift is solidifying the erosion of North American economic integration, weakening Washington’s leverage over regional trade.

Argentina’s financial crisis worsens as banking restrictions intensify. Facing an escalating liquidity crisis, multiple banks have imposed stricter withdrawal limits, triggering growing public anxiety. Inflation remains uncontrollable, and the Milei administration’s efforts to secure international funding have failed to restore confidence. If the crisis is not contained, Argentina risks systemic financial collapse, with significant spillover effects on the broader South American economy.

Brazil’s political crisis is escalating as Bolsonaro’s supporters increase mobilization efforts. Right-wing demonstrations are growing in scale, with organized protests disrupting transportation and critical infrastructure. Reports indicate that some elements within Brazil’s security forces may be sympathetic to Bolsonaro’s movement, raising concerns over possible institutional fractures within law enforcement and the military. The likelihood of violent clashes between Bolsonaro loyalists and state forces is rising.

U.S.-Mexico security tensions are reaching a critical stage. Intelligence reports indicate that the U.S. is finalizing plans for targeted military strikes against cartel leaders, marking a potential turning point in U.S.-Mexico relations. President Sheinbaum has issued a strong diplomatic warning against unilateral U.S. military action, but Washington’s security posture continues to shift toward a more aggressive strategy. If military action proceeds, it could push U.S.-Mexico relations into an unprecedented crisis.

China’s economic influence in Latin America continues to expand. Beijing has secured additional energy and infrastructure agreements in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, reinforcing its position as the region’s primary economic alternative to the United States. As Washington remains focused on security and counterterrorism, Latin American governments are accelerating their pivot toward Chinese economic partnerships, further reducing U.S. leverage in the region.

Short-term risks include escalating financial instability in Argentina, growing political unrest in Brazil, and worsening U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations. In the long term, the Americas are shifting toward an increasingly fragmented geopolitical structure, with declining U.S. influence and rising economic and security uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(03-03-2025)

The geopolitical situation in the Americas remains at a crisis level, with economic fragmentation, financial distress, and security tensions deepening across the region. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is further accelerating North America’s economic realignment, as Mexico and Canada consolidate alternative trade agreements with China and the EU. Argentina’s financial system is nearing collapse, with severe liquidity shortages forcing additional banking restrictions. Meanwhile, Brazil is experiencing an escalation in political unrest, as Bolsonaro’s supporters intensify their mobilization efforts, heightening the risk of violent confrontations. U.S.-Mexico relations are at their lowest point in decades, with Washington actively preparing counter-cartel military operations, increasing the risk of unilateral U.S. military action on Mexican soil. Additionally, China continues to deepen its economic influence across Latin America, reinforcing the region’s long-term shift away from U.S.-led financial and security frameworks. These trends confirm that the Americas are undergoing a fundamental geopolitical transition, marked by increasing security volatility, economic uncertainty, and declining U.S. regional dominance.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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