Global Risk Indexes (25-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Disruptions, Political Unrest, and Security Conflicts Push the Americas Toward Deeper Instability

The Americas continue to experience widespread economic, political, and security instability, with no signs of de-escalation in the near term. Today’s developments highlight the growing divergence in economic policy, deepening financial crises, and the worsening U.S.-Mexico security conflict.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is worsening, pushing regional economies toward long-term realignments. The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies are accelerating economic fragmentation, with Mexico and Canada seeking expanded trade partnerships outside of North America. Mexico is finalizing trade agreements with the EU and China, while Canada is ramping up energy exports to Asia. These moves indicate that North America’s economic landscape is undergoing a fundamental restructuring that could permanently weaken U.S. regional trade dominance.

Argentina’s financial sector faces a growing risk of systemic collapse. The liquidity crisis continues to spread, with multiple regional banks now experiencing significant cash shortages. The central bank’s emergency interventions have failed to restore confidence, and capital flight is accelerating. If current trends persist, Argentina could enter a full-scale financial meltdown, which would have destabilizing effects across South America.

Brazil’s political tensions are escalating as Bolsonaro’s supporters mobilize nationwide. Protests are intensifying in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling against Bolsonaro, with his right-wing base organizing mass demonstrations in key urban centers. There is a rising risk of violent clashes, particularly as security forces attempt to manage large-scale mobilizations. The potential for long-term political destabilization remains high as the opposition challenges Bolsonaro’s influence over the country’s conservative movement.

U.S.-Mexico security relations continue to deteriorate as Washington expands counter-cartel operations. Intelligence reports suggest that U.S. security agencies are increasing surveillance and targeting cartel financial networks, further straining diplomatic ties with Mexico. President Sheinbaum has warned that any unilateral U.S. military action could trigger a severe diplomatic crisis. If Washington escalates direct security measures within Mexico, it could mark a turning point in bilateral relations, with lasting consequences for regional stability.

China strengthens its economic foothold in Latin America as U.S. influence weakens. Beijing is continuing to expand infrastructure and energy investments across Latin America, reinforcing the region’s shift toward alternative global partnerships. As Washington remains focused on security operations rather than economic diplomacy, Latin American governments are increasing trade and investment ties with China, accelerating the region’s transition away from U.S.-led economic frameworks.

Short-term risks include the potential for financial collapse in Argentina, escalating political violence in Brazil, and worsening U.S.-Mexico diplomatic tensions. In the long term, the Americas are shifting toward a fragmented geopolitical order, marked by economic multipolarity, rising security challenges, and declining U.S. regional influence.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(25-02-2025)

Geopolitical volatility across the Americas remains at an extreme level as economic disruptions, financial crises, and security conflicts escalate. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is deepening, with Mexico and Canada accelerating economic diversification strategies that further erode North American integration. Argentina’s financial sector is on the brink of collapse, with liquidity shortages and banking instability now spreading beyond Buenos Aires. Meanwhile, Brazil’s political crisis is reaching a critical phase, as Bolsonaro’s supporters increase their mobilization efforts. U.S.-Mexico relations continue to deteriorate, as Washington expands intelligence and security operations against cartel networks, increasing the risk of unilateral U.S. military actions. Additionally, China’s economic engagement with Latin America continues to grow, solidifying a long-term geopolitical shift away from U.S.-led financial and trade structures. These developments indicate that the region is in a prolonged phase of geopolitical realignment, with U.S. influence waning and security risks escalating.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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