Global Risk Indexes (22-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Fragmentation, Financial Turmoil, and Security Clashes Deepen Instability in the Americas

The Americas are facing compounding economic, political, and security crises that are reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. Today’s developments highlight a growing divergence in economic policy, financial instability in Argentina, and intensifying U.S.-Mexico tensions over security operations.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to disrupt regional economies. The Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs—targeting Mexico’s auto industry and Canadian oil exports—are escalating trade fragmentation. Goldman Sachs estimates that the newly proposed 10% oil tariff could cost foreign producers $10 billion annually, disproportionately affecting Canadian and Latin American suppliers. Canada is actively exploring alternative markets, while Mexico’s manufacturing sector is struggling with slowing industrial growth and declining foreign investment.

Argentina’s banking crisis accelerates, raising fears of financial collapse. Following the fallout from the $LIBRA cryptocurrency scandal, liquidity concerns have spread to the banking sector. The collapse of a major Buenos Aires investment fund has triggered capital outflows and emergency liquidity injections by the central bank. The Milei administration is under increasing pressure to stabilize financial markets, as fears of a deeper economic crisis mount.

Brazil’s political crisis intensifies amid Bolsonaro’s legal battle. The former president’s indictment for an alleged coup plot is fueling political unrest, with pro-Bolsonaro demonstrations expected to escalate in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Supreme Court’s decision to suspend the video-sharing platform Rumble, citing concerns over misinformation, is adding to political polarization. These developments could trigger further institutional instability, especially with the upcoming 2026 elections.

U.S.-Mexico tensions reach a breaking point over cartel terrorism designations. The Trump administration’s formal classification of major Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations is straining bilateral relations. While President Sheinbaum has publicly downplayed the issue, there are growing concerns in Mexico that Washington could justify unilateral military operations under counterterrorism laws. If security tensions escalate further, it could mark a turning point in U.S.-Mexico cooperation, increasing regional instability.

China strengthens its economic presence in Latin America as U.S. foreign aid priorities shift. The Trump administration’s decision to unfreeze $5.3 billion in foreign aid, with the majority allocated to security and counternarcotics efforts rather than humanitarian programs, reflects a strategic realignment in U.S. global engagement. Meanwhile, China continues to expand its influence through infrastructure and energy investments, particularly in Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, further accelerating the region’s geopolitical shift away from U.S. economic dominance.

Short-term risks include increased financial instability in Argentina, heightened political unrest in Brazil, and escalating U.S.-Mexico diplomatic tensions. In the long term, the region’s trajectory toward economic multipolarity and declining U.S. influence will reshape its geopolitical landscape for years to come.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(22-02-2025)

The geopolitical crisis in the Americas remains at an extreme level as economic instability, political unrest, and security tensions continue to escalate. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is further disrupting supply chains, while Argentina’s deepening financial turmoil is now spreading to the banking sector. Meanwhile, Brazil is facing rising political tensions following Bolsonaro’s indictment, with mass protests expected in the coming weeks. U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations are at their most fragile point in decades due to Washington’s designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, raising the risk of unilateral U.S. security actions. Additionally, Latin America’s strategic realignment continues as China expands its economic footprint, and the Trump administration’s foreign aid restructuring deprioritizes humanitarian programs in favor of security and narcotics control. These trends indicate a prolonged period of economic fragmentation, security volatility, and geopolitical realignment across the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings