Global Risk Indexes (22-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA in Crisis: Gaza Ceasefire Shaken, Iraq Faces U.S.-Iran Showdown, and Hezbollah Seeks Revival Amid Nasrallah’s Funeral

The Middle East faces another day of deepening instability as key geopolitical flashpoints continue to escalate. The fragile truce in Gaza remains on the brink of collapse as Hamas releases hostages while Israeli military operations intensify in the West Bank. Meanwhile, Arab states are struggling to unify behind an alternative to U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial Gaza displacement plan, highlighting regional diplomatic divisions. Iraq is under heavy U.S. pressure to restart Kurdish oil exports to weaken Iran’s economic position, creating a new point of friction between Washington, Baghdad, and Tehran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is attempting to project political strength with a mass funeral for Hassan Nasrallah, despite the group’s significant losses in its war with Israel. Meanwhile, Syria’s new Islamist-led government is seeking closer ties with China, marking a potential shift in regional alignments.

Gaza Ceasefire in Peril as Hostage Releases Continue

Hamas has released five hostages and is set to release one more in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. However, the fragile ceasefire remains under extreme pressure following the highly controversial handover of hostage remains earlier in the week. Netanyahu’s government has condemned Hamas’ handling of the process, and Israeli military operations in the West Bank have intensified in response. With talks over a second phase of the ceasefire deal expected to begin soon, the situation remains extremely volatile.

Arab States Struggle to Counter Trump’s Gaza Plan

Arab leaders gathered in Riyadh to discuss joint efforts supporting the Palestinian cause, but no concrete alternative to Trump’s proposal has emerged. While Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan firmly reject the idea of displacing Palestinians, their inability to present a unified counterplan weakens their diplomatic position. The meeting highlighted the internal divisions among Arab states over how to handle Gaza’s reconstruction and governance. With an emergency Arab League meeting set for March 4, regional powers are under pressure to formulate a cohesive strategy before then.

U.S. Pressures Iraq to Restart Kurdish Oil Exports

Washington is intensifying its efforts to force Baghdad to resume Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, using the threat of sanctions as leverage. The move is part of Trump’s renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran, as Kurdish crude exports would offset the anticipated loss of Iranian oil due to new sanctions. However, Baghdad remains wary of alienating Tehran, which retains significant economic and military influence in Iraq. If Iraq bows to U.S. pressure, it could lead to increased Iranian retaliation through its network of militias in the region.

Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Funeral: A Show of Strength Amid Decline

Hezbollah is preparing a large-scale funeral for its former leader Hassan Nasrallah, aiming to demonstrate the group’s resilience despite suffering heavy losses in its recent war with Israel. The funeral is expected to draw a massive turnout, including delegations from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen’s Houthis, reflecting Hezbollah’s deep ties to Tehran. However, Hezbollah’s strategic position has significantly weakened, with its ability to dictate Lebanese politics now diminished. The funeral is as much a political maneuver as it is a memorial event.

Syria’s Islamist-Led Government Engages China

Syria’s new government, led by former HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has officially engaged with China for the first time. This meeting is significant, as China was a key backer of the Assad regime before its collapse. The inclusion of Uyghur fighters within Syria’s new leadership structure raises concerns for Beijing, given its longstanding crackdown on Uyghur separatist movements. However, China’s willingness to maintain diplomatic channels with Syria suggests it may be exploring ways to protect its economic and strategic interests in the country.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East remains at a dangerously high level of instability. The Gaza ceasefire is hanging by a thread, Iraq is caught between competing U.S. and Iranian interests, and Hezbollah is struggling to maintain its political influence despite its symbolic show of strength. Meanwhile, Syria’s new Islamist-led government is cautiously navigating its international relationships, particularly with China. With multiple crises converging, any miscalculation could trigger a rapid escalation into broader conflict. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the region can de-escalate or slides further into turmoil.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(22-02-2025)

The Middle East remains at an extreme level of geopolitical instability, with multiple interconnected crises developing simultaneously. The fragile Gaza ceasefire is under immense strain as Hamas hands over hostages and Israeli military operations intensify in the West Bank. Arab states are scrambling to counter Trump’s Gaza displacement plan, but internal divisions and a lack of clear alternatives weaken their efforts. Meanwhile, Iraq is caught between U.S. pressure to restart Kurdish oil exports and Iranian influence, while Syria’s new Islamist-led government engages China, signaling potential shifts in regional alignments. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is using Nasrallah’s mass funeral as a political show of strength, despite the group’s significant losses in the recent war with Israel. The convergence of these crises keeps the region at an extremely high risk level, with a breakdown in Gaza negotiations or a sudden military escalation in Lebanon capable of triggering a wider regional conflict.

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