Global Risk Indexes (18-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Hezbollah Declares Israeli Presence in Lebanon an 'Occupation,' Iran Defies U.S. on Nuclear Program, and Trump’s Gaza Plan Faces Deepening Global Rejection

The Middle East is experiencing a rapid escalation of diplomatic, military, and economic shifts, pushing the region toward a new phase of instability. U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza displacement plan continues to face international resistance, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now attempting to reframe it as a 'voluntary relocation' to deflect accusations of ethnic cleansing. However, internal divisions within Washington are emerging, as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has publicly opposed Trump’s plan, marking a key challenge to the administration’s Middle East strategy. In parallel, Hezbollah has officially declared Israel’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon beyond the February 18 deadline an 'occupation,' setting the stage for a potential military confrontation. The situation has further escalated after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon, increasing the likelihood of retaliatory strikes by Iranian-backed forces. At the same time, Iran has dismissed U.S. and Israeli threats against its nuclear program, declaring that Washington and Tel Aviv 'cannot do a damn thing' to stop its uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, Egypt has strengthened its geopolitical influence by securing a gas export agreement with Cyprus, further positioning itself as a key energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. Iraq and Turkey have finalized an agreement to resume Kurdistan oil exports, marking a diplomatic breakthrough in Ankara-Baghdad relations. Qatar and the UAE have taken a historic step by signing their first-ever defense industry cooperation deal, symbolizing a new era in Gulf relations. Russia and the U.S. are engaging in direct negotiations in Saudi Arabia over the Ukraine war, sparking frustration among European allies who feel sidelined in the process. The European Union has also begun formally opposing Trump’s Gaza plan, adding to the growing international pressure against the U.S. position. Meanwhile, Turkey has secured $5 billion in infrastructure financing from AIIB, strengthening its economic position amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. With military escalations in Lebanon and Gaza, diplomatic tensions over Trump’s policies, and economic realignments shaping regional power balances, the Middle East is now at a critical inflection point.

Trump’s Gaza Plan: International and Domestic Opposition Mounts

Trump’s forced displacement plan for Palestinians has encountered growing opposition, with Netanyahu now rebranding it as 'voluntary relocation' in an attempt to neutralize criticism. However, resistance is expanding beyond the Arab world—Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s public opposition to the policy indicates a serious fracture within Washington over its Middle East approach. Meanwhile, the European Union has signaled its intent to formally oppose the plan, marking a shift in transatlantic relations over the Palestinian issue. The Vatican has also reinforced global opposition, making it increasingly difficult for Trump to secure diplomatic support for the plan. If this opposition continues to grow, it could force a recalibration of U.S. policy in the region.

Hezbollah’s Declaration of Israeli Occupation: Countdown to a Lebanon Conflict?

Hezbollah’s statement that Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon constitutes an 'occupation' marks a dangerous escalation. With Israel refusing to withdraw and Hezbollah increasing its rhetoric, the risk of direct military confrontation is rising sharply. The assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Lebanon by Israeli forces further complicates the situation, increasing the likelihood of Iranian-backed retaliatory strikes. If tensions continue to build, Lebanon could become the next major war zone in the region.

Iran’s Defiance on Nuclear Development

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has issued a bold challenge to Washington and Tel Aviv, declaring that they 'cannot do a damn thing' to stop Tehran’s nuclear program. This statement comes as Iran accelerates its uranium enrichment, raising fears that a nuclear breakout is imminent. U.S. and Israeli officials remain committed to 'rolling back' Iran’s regional influence, but Tehran’s defiant stance suggests that diplomatic resolutions are unlikely in the near future. The growing nuclear tension increases the risk of an Israeli preemptive strike, which could trigger a full-scale regional conflict.

Strategic Outlook

The MENA region is facing a dangerous convergence of crises, with multiple conflicts and diplomatic confrontations escalating simultaneously. Trump’s Gaza displacement policy is meeting increasing resistance from both allies and rivals, while Netanyahu’s attempt to reframe the issue indicates growing pressure on Israel. Hezbollah’s declaration of Israeli presence in Lebanon as an 'occupation' increases the likelihood of a military confrontation. Iran’s nuclear escalation, combined with U.S. and Israeli opposition, raises the possibility of a direct military strike on Iranian facilities. Meanwhile, economic realignments—such as Egypt’s energy deals, Iraq-Turkey oil agreements, and Qatar-UAE defense cooperation—are reshaping regional power dynamics. With these tensions reaching a breaking point, the next phase of the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape will be defined by whether diplomacy can prevent war or if full-scale conflicts become inevitable.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(18-02-2025)

The MENA region is rapidly destabilizing as diplomatic confrontations escalate, military tensions rise, and economic realignments reshape the strategic landscape. Trump’s Gaza displacement plan faces growing global rejection, with Netanyahu now attempting to reframe it as a “voluntary relocation” to counter accusations of ethnic cleansing. Within the U.S., Senator Lindsey Graham has openly opposed the plan, signaling fractures in Washington’s political establishment over Middle East policy. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has officially declared Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon as an 'occupation,' following Israel’s refusal to withdraw beyond the February 18 deadline. This marks the most dangerous flashpoint in Lebanon in years, as Hezbollah could retaliate militarily. Israel’s assassination of a top Hamas leader in Lebanon has further escalated cross-border tensions, raising the risk of direct Iranian-backed retaliation. Iran, emboldened by shifting regional dynamics, has issued a direct warning to the U.S. and Israel that they “cannot do a damn thing” to stop its nuclear program, signaling Tehran’s confidence amid ongoing uranium enrichment. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Egypt has strengthened its geopolitical leverage by securing a gas export deal with Cyprus, while Iraq and Turkey have finalized an agreement to resume Kurdistan oil exports, stabilizing their energy relations. Meanwhile, Qatar and the UAE have signed their first-ever defense industry cooperation deal, marking a historic milestone in their post-GCC crisis rapprochement. Russia and the U.S. are engaging in direct talks in Saudi Arabia over the Ukraine war, while European allies express frustration over being sidelined. The European Union has also signaled its formal opposition to Trump’s Gaza plan, increasing international pressure on Washington and Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, Turkey has secured $5 billion in financing from AIIB for infrastructure projects, boosting its economic resilience. With these developments unfolding alongside rising military confrontations and economic realignments, the region is entering a critical phase of heightened instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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