Global Risk Indexes (13-02-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 95 (-1 ▼)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Netanyahu Prepares for Gaza Offensive, Israel Weighs Preemptive Strike on Iran, and Trump's Gaza Plan Faces Stiff Arab Resistance

The Middle East is at a breaking point, as military and diplomatic crises escalate across multiple fronts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the mobilization of reservists and warned of 'intense fighting' in Gaza if Hamas does not release additional hostages by Saturday. This move signals that Israel is preparing for a full-scale offensive, which could trigger wider regional conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Israel is likely to launch a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by mid-2025, dramatically raising the risk of a regional war. Iran has responded by accelerating its missile development program and filing a complaint at the U.N., warning of 'severe consequences' for any U.S. or Israeli aggression. Trump continues to pressure Jordan and Egypt to accept displaced Palestinians despite firm rejections, further damaging U.S. relations with its key Arab allies. In Lebanon, Israel is pushing for U.S. approval to maintain a long-term military presence in the south, a move that Hezbollah has warned would cross a red line. In economic developments, Saudi Arabia has once again reduced oil shipments to China, signaling a realignment of Riyadh's energy strategy. Turkey has secured a natural gas supply deal with Turkmenistan, reinforcing its ambition to become a regional energy hub. Meanwhile, Russia is actively working to maintain its influence in Syria, while tensions between Iran and the U.K. are rising following Tehran's arrest of two British nationals. With regional powers making final preparations for potential escalations, the next few days will be decisive for the trajectory of conflicts in the MENA region.

Netanyahu's Military Preparations: The Countdown to a Gaza Offensive

Netanyahu's mobilization of reservists and preparations for 'intense fighting' in Gaza indicate that Israel is moving toward a renewed military campaign. Hamas has refused to release additional hostages, and with Trump pressuring Netanyahu for a harder stance, Israeli military action appears imminent. This would not only escalate tensions in Gaza but could also provoke Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq to retaliate, leading to a broader regional conflict.

Israel's Preemptive Strike on Iran: A Regional War Looms

U.S. intelligence has warned that Israel is likely to strike Iran's nuclear facilities by mid-2025, marking a significant escalation. Such an attack would almost certainly provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially leading to a full-scale war between Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has responded by calling for an acceleration of missile development, reinforcing Tehran's military preparedness. If tensions continue to rise, the region could be heading toward one of its most dangerous confrontations in decades.

Trump's Gaza Displacement Plan: Increasing U.S.-Arab Tensions

Trump's insistence that Jordan and Egypt will ultimately accept displaced Palestinians has deepened the diplomatic rift between Washington and its Arab allies. Both Amman and Cairo have categorically rejected the plan, with Egypt now leading mediation efforts to prevent further escalation in Gaza. If Trump continues to push this policy, it could lead to long-term damage to U.S.-Arab relations and strengthen Iran's influence as a defender of Palestinian rights.

Saudi Energy Strategy: Cutting Shipments to China

Saudi Arabia's decision to reduce oil shipments to China for the third consecutive month indicates a strategic recalibration of its energy exports. This could be part of a broader effort to manage global crude prices, exert leverage over Beijing, or align energy policies with Western allies amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Strategic Outlook

The MENA region is heading toward an extremely volatile period, with multiple conflict scenarios emerging. Netanyahu's preparations for a renewed Gaza offensive, combined with intelligence warnings of an impending Israeli strike on Iran, significantly raise the risk of a regional war. Trump's Gaza displacement plan has backfired diplomatically, pushing Jordan and Egypt further away from Washington. Meanwhile, economic realignments'such as Saudi Arabia's oil strategy and Turkey's energy deals'are shaping new regional power dynamics. The coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomatic efforts can prevent these crises from escalating into full-scale conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(13-02-2025)

The MENA region is facing an imminent escalation in both military and diplomatic crises. Trump is intensifying pressure on Jordan and Egypt to accept displaced Palestinians, despite clear rejections from both governments. Netanyahu is mobilizing reservists and preparing for 'intense fighting' in Gaza, increasing the likelihood of a major Israeli offensive if Hamas does not release more hostages by Saturday. Iran has responded to Trump's renewed 'maximum pressure' campaign by accelerating its missile development and filing another complaint at the U.N. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence warns that Israel is likely to launch a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by mid-2025, setting the stage for a potential regional war. In Lebanon, Israel is seeking U.S. approval for a long-term military presence in the south, despite strong Lebanese and Hezbollah opposition. Saudi Arabia has cut oil shipments to China for the third consecutive month, reflecting shifting energy strategies. Turkey has strengthened its energy position with a new natural gas deal with Turkmenistan, reinforcing its goal of becoming a key energy hub. Russia is maneuvering to maintain its influence in Syria's post-Assad era, while tensions between Iran and the West have escalated after Tehran arrested two British nationals on security charges. With multiple conflicts on the verge of escalation and geopolitical tensions rising, the region is at a dangerous crossroads.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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