Africa's Battle for Reparations, Mali's Mining Crisis, and South Africa's Diplomatic Rift: Key Geopolitical Developments on February 13
African leaders at the AU Summit in Ethiopia have launched a new push for colonial reparations, but face resistance from Western powers.
The push for reparations reflects Africa's broader effort to demand accountability for historical injustices, from slavery to colonial-era economic extraction. While the AU has sought alignment with CARICOM on a joint reparations strategy, the political climate in Western nations'where far-right populism is rising'makes meaningful engagement unlikely. Leaders like Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron have already dismissed reparations, while Britain's ruling party faces internal pressures to avoid the debate entirely.
Despite these hurdles, the AU's strategy is evolving beyond financial compensation. It now includes policy reforms, land restitution, and demands for the return of stolen cultural artifacts. However, Africa's diplomatic leverage remains limited, with legal action in international courts unlikely to yield enforceable rulings.
Mali's mining sector is reeling from investor uncertainty, with Barrick Gold signaling a possible permanent shutdown of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.
As the military-led government in Mali continues its aggressive resource nationalism push, tensions with investors are worsening. While Mali insists on higher taxes and greater state control over mining operations, Barrick Gold's CEO has warned that prolonged disruptions could force the company to abandon its operations. This would deal a significant economic blow to Mali, where gold remains the primary source of government revenue. Investors are also watching closely to see whether this signals a broader trend of extractive resource disputes across Africa.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces increasing regional instability, as M23 rebels consolidate their position in Goma and threaten further advances.
Amid diplomatic efforts to establish ceasefire talks, Congo's Catholic Church has stepped in to engage directly with rebel leader Corneille Nangaa. This move reflects frustration with the failures of traditional diplomatic mechanisms, as the UN and regional powers struggle to contain the conflict. Meanwhile, Rwanda has neither confirmed nor denied the presence of its troops in eastern Congo, further complicating peace efforts.
As M23 fighters push toward Bukavu, fears of a direct military confrontation between Congo, Rwanda, and potentially Burundi are growing. The longer the conflict continues, the more it risks escalating into a full-scale regional war, reminiscent of the Great African War of the late 1990s.
South Africa's G20 presidency is being undermined by U.S. diplomatic hostility, with Washington boycotting key meetings.
With Donald Trump's administration actively working to sideline South Africa's leadership at the G20, analysts fear that the broader relevance of the organization could be at stake. Trump's refusal to send a delegation to Johannesburg signals a shift in Washington's approach to global governance, with implications beyond South Africa. China and Russia, in contrast, have expressed strong support for Pretoria's leadership, raising concerns that the G20 could become another arena for great-power competition.
Ghana's corruption crisis deepens, with the discovery of over 81,000 'ghost names' on the government payroll.
The revelation has sparked public outrage, especially as Ghana struggles to recover from one of its worst economic crises in decades. President John Mahama has pledged an anti-corruption crackdown, but systemic fraud remains deeply embedded in the country's governance structures. Ghana's financial credibility is at stake, particularly as it seeks continued IMF support to stabilize its economy.
Kenya's currency remains volatile, despite foreign exchange inflows stabilizing the shilling.
While Kenya's central bank has managed to prevent a major depreciation, uncertainty remains over the country's fiscal trajectory. The government's growing budget deficits and reliance on infrastructure bonds make it vulnerable to external shocks, particularly in the wake of global interest rate adjustments.
Brazil's Petrobras is expanding its footprint in Africa's oil sector, seeking stakes in projects across Angola, Namibia, and South Africa.
Petrobras' move reflects a strategic shift toward securing long-term reserves as Brazil anticipates declining domestic production post-2030. The company's partnerships with ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies position it as a key player in Africa's energy markets, reinforcing South America-Africa economic ties.
Strategic Implications: February 13 highlights Africa's ongoing struggles with economic sovereignty, diplomatic realignment, and security volatility. The AU's reparations campaign is unlikely to yield immediate results but signals a long-term shift in Africa's global positioning. Mali's mining crisis, Kenya's currency fluctuations, and Ghana's corruption scandals underscore the continent's economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, South Africa's tensions with the U.S. and Congo's escalating conflict reflect Africa's broader geopolitical dilemmas. Addressing these challenges will require diplomatic finesse, strategic economic planning, and strengthened regional security coordination.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(13-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 13, 2025, remains marked by worsening security conflicts, economic policy disputes, and diplomatic power struggles. The AU summit's push for colonial reparations highlights Africa's broader strategy to reshape its global standing, though resistance from Western nations remains firm. Meanwhile, Mali's mining dispute, the DRC's security deterioration, and South Africa's intensifying tensions with the U.S. signal increasing instability. Economic uncertainty persists, with Kenya's currency fluctuations, Ghana's corruption scandals, and Tanzania's LNG negotiations influencing investor confidence. Addressing these risks requires strategic diplomacy, regional coordination, and economic recalibration.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa's Battle for Reparations, Mali's Mining Crisis, and South Africa's Diplomatic Rift: Key Geopolitical Developments on February 13 - (13-02-2025)
- War in the DRC, Sudan's Ceasefire Rejection, and South Africa's Trade Disputes: Africa's Key Developments on February 12 - (12-02-2025)
- Land Reform Tensions, Regional Conflicts, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on February 11 - (11-02-2025)
- South Africa's Diplomatic Rift, Congo's Military Crisis, and Sudan's Power Struggle: Africa's Key Developments on February 10 - (10-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Global Realignments: Africa's Strategic Outlook for February 9 - (09-02-2025)
- Sanctions, Resource Nationalism, and Regional Conflicts: Africa's Volatile Geopolitical Landscape on February 8 - (08-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7 - (07-02-2025)
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
