Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Global Realignments: Africa's Strategic Outlook for February 9
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) conflict has entered a critical phase, with M23 rebels consolidating control over Goma and moving deeper into South Kivu. Rwanda's alleged military involvement has drawn international condemnation, with the U.S. threatening sanctions against officials in both Kigali and Kinshasa. Despite diplomatic efforts'including a failed Eastern and Southern Africa summit'regional divisions continue to hinder a unified response. The DRC's attempt to internationalize the crisis by lobbying Western nations and multinational corporations to sever ties with Rwanda reflects Kinshasa's frustration with diplomatic inertia.
South Africa's diplomatic and economic standing remains under strain, as the fallout from Donald Trump's aid suspension deepens. The U.S. has escalated its pressure campaign by refusing to send Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg. While South Africa has dismissed the move as 'political theater,' the growing rift could affect trade relations, particularly its participation in the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA). Meanwhile, the rand has shown signs of recovery, suggesting that investors remain cautiously optimistic about the government's economic reform agenda.
Mali's aggressive resource nationalism has triggered economic uncertainty, with Barrick Gold suspending operations following government asset seizures. The country's new mining law, which mandates higher local ownership and tax rates, has led to capital flight and threatens to cripple the gold industry'Mali's largest export sector. While the government argues that the policy is necessary to increase state revenue, investor confidence is eroding, and the long-term sustainability of this model remains questionable.
Nigeria's oil policy is reshaping Africa's energy landscape, as the government enforces strict domestic crude supply obligations to boost local refining. While the move is intended to reduce reliance on imported refined petroleum, it has sparked tensions with international oil companies (IOCs), who argue that domestic refineries are offering below-market prices. If mishandled, Nigeria risks deterring foreign investment, which could ultimately undermine its broader economic ambitions.
Egypt has shifted from an aspiring energy exporter to a net LNG importer, securing a $3 billion deal with Shell and TotalEnergies to cover domestic demand. The shift underscores Cairo's energy security concerns, driven by declining domestic gas production and rising consumption. While the deal provides short-term relief, it raises questions about Egypt's long-term economic trajectory and its ability to maintain energy independence.
Uganda's financial system remains under scrutiny, following a high-profile cyberattack scandal involving finance ministry officials who allegedly embezzled $21 million. The breach highlights the growing cybersecurity vulnerabilities in African financial institutions, particularly as digital banking expands across the continent.
Strategic Implications: This week highlights Africa's struggle to balance security, economic independence, and global diplomacy. The DRC conflict remains the continent's most pressing geopolitical crisis, with the potential to escalate into a broader regional war. Meanwhile, Mali's resource nationalism and Nigeria's oil policies reflect Africa's push for economic sovereignty, but at the risk of investor flight and financial instability. South Africa's diplomatic row with the U.S. could reshape trade dynamics, while Egypt's LNG deal signals shifting energy dependencies. Africa's long-term stability depends on its ability to manage these transitions strategically, leveraging regional cooperation, adaptive economic policies, and assertive diplomatic engagement.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(09-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape from February 3'9, 2025, was dominated by deepening conflicts, economic realignments, and strategic diplomatic tensions. The worsening DRC crisis, South Africa's diplomatic fallout with the U.S., and Mali's aggressive resource nationalism highlight the fragile security and economic conditions across the continent. Meanwhile, Africa's push for greater control over its mineral wealth and financial independence'exemplified by Nigeria's oil policies, Mali's mining laws, and the Africa Energy Bank'marks a defining moment in its geopolitical trajectory. However, these shifts also pose significant risks, including capital flight, investor uncertainty, and further regional instability. Addressing these issues will require a blend of strategic diplomacy, economic resilience, and regional cooperation to avoid long-term destabilization.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Global Realignments: Africa's Strategic Outlook for February 9 - (09-02-2025)
- Sanctions, Resource Nationalism, and Regional Conflicts: Africa's Volatile Geopolitical Landscape on February 8 - (08-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7 - (07-02-2025)
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
- Resource Politics, Military Maneuvering, and Diplomatic Fractures: Africa's Key Shifts on February 5 - (05-02-2025)
- Conflict, Economic Nationalism, and Diplomatic Tensions: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 4 - (04-02-2025)
- Diplomatic Tensions, Security Crises, and Resource Sovereignty: Africa's Shifting Geopolitical Landscape on February 3 - (03-02-2025)
- Africa's Critical Inflection Point: Conflict Escalation, Economic Sovereignty, and Regional Realignment Shape the Continent's Future - (02-02-2025)
