Global Risk Indexes (02-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 99 ( —)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Africa's Critical Inflection Point: Conflict Escalation, Economic Sovereignty, and Regional Realignment Shape the Continent's Future

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has become the epicenter of Africa's most severe security crisis, with M23 rebels tightening their grip on Goma and expanding southward toward Bukavu. The involvement of Rwandan and Burundian troops has transformed the conflict into a potential interstate war, raising the stakes for regional actors and international diplomacy. The Congolese army's continued losses reflect the inefficacy of regional peacekeeping efforts, while the humanitarian toll has reached catastrophic levels, with over half a million displaced. Without decisive intervention, the conflict risks destabilizing the Great Lakes region and disrupting global mineral supply chains.

ECOWAS's formal fracture has redefined West Africa's geopolitical landscape, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger cementing their exit from the bloc and solidifying their Alliance of Sahel States (ASS). This split weakens regional security frameworks and risks emboldening jihadist insurgencies, given the diminished capacity for coordinated counterterrorism operations. Meanwhile, the Sahel's shifting alliances, particularly toward Russia and Middle Eastern actors, signal a broader shift away from Western influence, raising concerns over the long-term trajectory of security partnerships in the region.

Libya's oil sector remains a critical flashpoint, as ongoing protests at Es Sidra threaten to disrupt energy exports to Europe. The governance crisis in Libya continues to expose the fragile nature of the country's resource management, with factions competing for control over revenues. Failure to implement a transparent distribution framework risks prolonging economic instability and fueling localized armed conflicts, further fragmenting the Libyan state.

Economic sovereignty debates intensified as Zambia and the DRC moved to bypass international traders in the copper market, seeking to directly control the sale of one of Africa's most valuable exports. This bold shift aligns with broader efforts to reclaim resource wealth but raises questions about execution, investor confidence, and the long-term viability of self-managed mineral trading. If successful, this model could redefine Africa's resource governance strategy, reducing dependence on foreign intermediaries and maximizing state revenues.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has proposed a mineral-backed currency, the African Units of Account (AUA), aimed at reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and stabilizing Africa's financial systems. While theoretically promising, this initiative faces significant challenges, including political buy-in, governance integrity, and ensuring trust in a continent-wide monetary system. If implemented correctly, it could position Africa as a global financial innovator, but its feasibility remains uncertain.

Ghana's finalized debt restructuring deal under the IMF's supervision highlights the economic fragility of African states relying on international financial institutions for survival. While the agreement provides short-term relief, Ghana's ability to sustain long-term growth will depend on fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and its capacity to negotiate favorable terms with commercial creditors.

New crises emerged outside of the traditional security and economic realms, with Uganda's deepening political crisis following President Museveni's defiance of judicial rulings, the resurgence of Ebola in Central Africa, and Kenya's rising gender-based violence rates. These developments reflect Africa's complex social vulnerabilities, requiring stronger legal frameworks, investment in public health infrastructure, and broader regional efforts to address governance and human rights concerns.

Strategic Implications: The week of January 27 to February 2 has laid bare the fragility of Africa's security, economic, and governance structures. The DRC conflict underscores the continent's vulnerability to external interference and weak multilateral peacekeeping efforts, while ECOWAS's fracture highlights the risks of regional disintegration. Africa's push for economic sovereignty, particularly through direct mineral trading and financial innovation, represents a bold step forward but requires careful policy execution to avoid unintended economic shocks. Meanwhile, governance challenges in Uganda, Kenya, and Libya emphasize the need for institutional resilience. Moving forward, African states must adopt proactive diplomatic strategies, enhance economic adaptability, and reinforce regional cooperation to mitigate escalating risks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(02-02-2025)

The week of January 27 to February 2, 2025, has underscored Africa's deepening geopolitical crises, economic realignments, and governance challenges. The continued escalation of the DRC conflict, the official fracture of ECOWAS, and resource governance struggles in Libya, Mali, and Ghana demonstrate a continent at a crossroads. Economic sovereignty debates, such as Zambia and the DRC's new copper trade model and the African Development Bank's mineral-backed currency initiative, signal a shift in Africa's positioning in global financial markets. However, these transformations come with risks, including increased instability, weakened regional cooperation, and fragile economic frameworks. Moving forward, African states must prioritize governance stability, regional collaboration, and adaptive economic policies to navigate these turbulent shifts effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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