Conflicts, Resource Nationalism, and Economic Realignments: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 1
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) crisis has reached a critical stage, with M23 rebels advancing toward Bukavu despite Congolese and Burundian reinforcements. Reports of Rwandan troop involvement have intensified regional tensions, with Burundi vowing retaliation if its borders are violated. The risk of an interstate war between the DRC, Rwanda, and Burundi is growing, threatening regional stability in Central Africa. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has called for emergency defense consultations, signaling a potential expanded military engagement.
ECOWAS's fragmentation is now a reality, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formally exiting the bloc and consolidating their Alliance of Sahel States (ASS). This split has immediate security and economic consequences, particularly for counterterrorism operations in the Sahel. France's diminishing role in the region and the realignment of these states towards Russia and Middle Eastern actors indicate a broader geopolitical restructuring of West Africa.
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced plans to increase production, despite ongoing disputes over oil revenue distribution. The new leadership under Massoud Suleman aims to enhance transparency and attract foreign investment, but continued factionalism and instability pose significant risks to Libya's long-term energy ambitions. The competition for control over Libya's resources remains a destabilizing factor that could disrupt energy supplies to Europe.
Mali's mining sector remains in turmoil, with the government escalating its demands against Barrick Gold, seeking a $200 million settlement. The move reflects a broader trend of resource nationalism, as Mali and other Sahelian states push for greater control over their mineral wealth. However, aggressive nationalization strategies risk deterring foreign investment, which remains crucial for sustaining these economies.
Zambia and the DRC are making strategic moves in the global copper market, with state-backed deals allowing them to directly trade mined metal rather than relying on international traders. This shift aims to maximize profits from Africa's vast mineral resources, particularly amid soaring demand for copper in AI, green energy, and electric vehicle production. However, balancing resource nationalism with investor confidence remains a challenge.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has put forward a bold proposal for a new mineral-backed currency, the African Units of Account (AUA), to stabilize the continent's financial systems and attract investment in green energy. If successfully implemented, this initiative could provide African states with greater financial autonomy and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. However, it faces significant challenges, including political buy-in and the need for robust governance mechanisms.
South Africa has reintroduced power cuts after nearly a year of relative stability, highlighting the ongoing fragility of Eskom's power generation capacity. The unexpected breakdowns at key coal-fired plants have raised concerns over the sustainability of South Africa's energy recovery. With energy insecurity persisting, industrial output and economic growth are likely to be negatively impacted.
Uganda's political crisis deepens as President Museveni rejects the Supreme Court's ruling to end military trials for civilians. This defiance underscores the growing authoritarianism of Museveni's government, raising concerns over the erosion of judicial independence and human rights in Uganda.
Strategic Implications: February 1 reflects Africa's ongoing struggles with geopolitical realignments, resource governance, and economic resilience. The DRC conflict underscores the dangers of regional militarization, while ECOWAS's fracture signals a shift in West African power dynamics. The AfDB's mineral-backed currency proposal and Zambia-DRC's copper trading moves highlight Africa's bid for economic sovereignty. However, these strategies require careful execution to avoid alienating global investors while securing long-term financial independence.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(01-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 1, 2025, continues to be shaped by escalating conflicts, economic shifts, and strategic resource negotiations. The DRC crisis is deepening with regional actors increasingly involved, raising concerns of a larger interstate conflict. Meanwhile, Libya's oil sector, Mali's mining disputes, and Zambia-DRC copper trading deals highlight Africa's ongoing battle for economic sovereignty amid global market pressures. The African Development Bank's proposal for a mineral-backed currency further signals an effort to reduce dependency on the U.S. dollar. These developments demand a rethinking of Africa's security and economic frameworks to ensure long-term resilience.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Conflicts, Resource Nationalism, and Economic Realignments: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 1 - (01-02-2025)
- Escalating Conflicts, Resource Rivalries, and Economic Fragility: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 31 - (31-01-2025)
- Geopolitical Realignments, Economic Fractures, and Security Crises: Africa's Defining Challenges on January 30 - (30-01-2025)
- DRC's Crisis Deepens, Resource Diplomacy Intensifies, and Regional Alliances Shift: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 29 - (29-01-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Diplomacy, and Economic Strategies Define Africa's Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities on January 28 - (28-01-2025)
- Conflict Escalations, Resource Rivalries, and Governance Failures Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 27 - (27-01-2025)
- From Conflict to Diplomacy: Africa Balances Fragility and Strategic Ambition - (26-01-2025)
- Security Escalations, Political Tensions, and Resource Diplomacy Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 25 - (25-01-2025)
