Escalating Conflicts, Resource Rivalries, and Economic Fragility: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 31
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) security crisis continues to spiral, with M23 rebels pushing further south after consolidating their hold on Goma. Reports indicate that Rwandan troops are actively supporting the offensive, escalating tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali. The Congolese government, backed by Burundi and South African forces, has vowed to retake lost territories, but the lack of a coherent regional response has left the situation volatile. The humanitarian impact is severe, with over 2,000 wounded and displacement camps emptying as residents flee renewed violence. The risk of a direct interstate war between the DRC and Rwanda is increasing, making urgent diplomatic intervention critical.
ECOWAS has formally fractured, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger finalizing their withdrawal. The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) marks a fundamental shift in West Africa's regional order, with significant implications for security and economic cooperation. The departure of these states weakens ECOWAS's ability to coordinate counterterrorism operations and could lead to increased instability in the Sahel. With France and the U.S. reducing their military footprint, jihadist groups may exploit the regional fragmentation, exacerbating insecurity.
Libya's oil sector remains a flashpoint, as protests at the Es Sidra port continue to disrupt energy exports. The protests reflect long-standing grievances over resource distribution, and without a transparent revenue-sharing framework, Libya risks further economic and political instability. The situation is being closely monitored by global energy markets, as Libya remains a critical supplier to Europe.
Mozambique's LNG investments remain in jeopardy, despite TotalEnergies reaffirming its commitment to resuming operations in Cabo Delgado. Ongoing insurgent activity and the lack of a comprehensive security strategy have left investors cautious. If the Mozambican government fails to secure Cabo Delgado, the country's potential to become a major LNG exporter will be significantly undermined.
Ghana has formalized its debt restructuring agreement under the IMF's supervision, providing some relief but highlighting deeper economic vulnerabilities. While the deal eases short-term financial pressures, Ghana's long-term recovery depends on fiscal discipline and structural reforms to prevent future crises.
The resurgence of Ebola in Central Africa has raised alarms, with the DRC investigating suspected cases and Uganda confirming an outbreak in its capital, Kampala. The potential for cross-border transmission remains high, particularly in regions with weak healthcare infrastructure. The response from African health agencies and international partners will be crucial in containing the outbreak before it escalates.
Gender-based violence in Kenya has reached alarming levels, with a surge in femicide cases prompting grassroots self-defense initiatives. The crisis highlights broader social inequalities and failures in law enforcement. While local organizations are stepping up efforts to combat gender-based violence, systemic reforms are needed to improve legal protections and accountability.
Strategic Implications: The developments of January 31 underscore Africa's multi-dimensional challenges. The DRC crisis risks regional war, ECOWAS's fracture weakens West Africa's security architecture, and economic uncertainties in Libya, Mozambique, and Ghana highlight the fragile balance between resource governance and financial stability. Meanwhile, the Ebola resurgence and rising gender-based violence in Kenya reveal deep social and health vulnerabilities. Addressing these issues requires strategic governance, reinforced regional cooperation, and proactive global engagement.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(31-01-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on January 31, 2025, is marked by intensifying conflicts, resource-driven disputes, and shifting economic strategies. The crisis in the DRC has entered a new phase, with M23 rebels consolidating control and defying international pressure. Meanwhile, Libya's oil tensions, Mozambique's LNG uncertainty, and Ghana's economic restructuring highlight the broader economic fragility across the continent. The formal fracture of ECOWAS, the resurgence of Ebola in Central Africa, and growing gender-based violence concerns in Kenya add to the complexities shaping Africa's immediate and long-term stability. These developments emphasize the need for stronger governance, regional cooperation, and strategic international engagements.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Escalating Conflicts, Resource Rivalries, and Economic Fragility: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 31 - (31-01-2025)
- Geopolitical Realignments, Economic Fractures, and Security Crises: Africa's Defining Challenges on January 30 - (30-01-2025)
- DRC's Crisis Deepens, Resource Diplomacy Intensifies, and Regional Alliances Shift: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 29 - (29-01-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Diplomacy, and Economic Strategies Define Africa's Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities on January 28 - (28-01-2025)
- Conflict Escalations, Resource Rivalries, and Governance Failures Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 27 - (27-01-2025)
- From Conflict to Diplomacy: Africa Balances Fragility and Strategic Ambition - (26-01-2025)
- Security Escalations, Political Tensions, and Resource Diplomacy Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 25 - (25-01-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Diplomacy, and Africa's Global Role Define January 24's Geopolitical Landscape - (24-01-2025)
