Global Risk Indexes (31-01-2025)

Global 98 (+1 ▲)
MENA 96 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 99 (+1 ▲)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 97 ( —)
Markets 99 (+2 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

U.S. Trade Wars, Migration Fallout, and Military-Industrial Shifts Reshape the Americas' Strategic Landscape

The Americas are navigating a period of profound geopolitical and economic instability, driven by intensifying trade conflicts, worsening migration tensions, and strategic military realignments. The latest developments highlight deepening fractures in regional cooperation and governance, with significant implications for long-term stability.

U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade relations reach a critical juncture as tariff threats escalate. President Trump's push for a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports has triggered forceful reactions from both countries, with Canada preparing targeted countermeasures against U.S. agriculture and Mexico weighing reciprocal tariffs on American automotive exports. The rapid deterioration of USMCA, originally intended to provide economic stability in North America, reflects the increasing fragility of regional trade frameworks under protectionist pressures. With Canada and Mexico exploring alternative economic partnerships, the long-term consequences of these tensions could see a restructuring of global trade alignments.

Migration crises deepen as U.S. deportation policies fuel humanitarian and diplomatic tensions. The ongoing mass deportation of migrants, many under controversial military-led operations, has strained relations between the U.S. and Latin American nations. Reports of inadequate infrastructure to accommodate deportees in Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador highlight the cascading social and economic costs of U.S. immigration policies. Meanwhile, Brazil and Colombia have issued formal diplomatic protests over the treatment of their nationals, increasing anti-U.S. sentiment and further complicating regional cooperation.

Argentina's defense pivot toward European suppliers marks a significant shift in military-industrial alliances. The finalization of a major submarine deal with Germany, backed by Berlin's state guarantees, represents Buenos Aires' continued effort to modernize its military while reducing reliance on the U.S. defense industry. This deal underscores a broader trend of Latin American nations diversifying their defense procurement strategies, potentially weakening Washington's traditional influence over the region's military landscape.

Economic vulnerabilities persist as Brazil, Argentina, and Chile face currency and fiscal pressures. Brazil's central bank has intervened in currency markets to stabilize the real amid growing capital flight, while Argentina's LNG export push faces geopolitical headwinds due to shifting global energy market dynamics. Meanwhile, Chile's pension reform rollout is facing resistance from employers concerned about increased labor costs, signaling potential labor market disruptions.

Short-term risks include economic disruptions from escalating trade conflicts, rising migration crises, and the destabilization of regional security structures. Long-term stability will require strategic economic diversification, diplomatic recalibration, and strengthened governance mechanisms to mitigate these growing threats.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(31-01-2025)

The Americas are experiencing escalating geopolitical, economic, and security crises as U.S. trade disputes intensify, migration pressures mount, and resource governance challenges deepen. The intersection of these crises, compounded by shifting military-industrial alliances and economic volatility, is reshaping regional stability and global power dynamics.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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