Global Risk Indexes (24-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 94 (-1 ▼)
APAC 95 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 95 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 95 (-2 ▼)
Markets 97 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

U.S.-Panama Dispute, Latin American Debt Pressures, and Resource Politics Shape Americas' Geopolitical Risks

The geopolitical and economic dynamics across the Americas are intensifying, driven by U.S. policy shifts, debt vulnerabilities, and resource politics. These developments underline a volatile environment that threatens regional stability and global economic interests.

The U.S.-Panama Canal dispute escalates, with potential implications for global trade and Panama's sovereignty. Following U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to 'take back' the Panama Canal, Panama has turned to the U.N. to reaffirm its control over the strategic waterway. The canal, vital for U.S. and global trade flows, has become a focal point of U.S. foreign policy rhetoric, raising fears of disruptions in one of the world's most critical maritime routes. The potential downgrading of Panama's credit rating due to these tensions further underscores the economic risks tied to geopolitical conflicts.

Latin American economies face mounting debt pressures amidst global uncertainties. Brazil's reliance on floating-rate bonds to finance its debt exposes it to rising interest rates, threatening to destabilize fiscal policy under President Luiz In'cio Lula da Silva. Meanwhile, Argentina shows signs of fragile economic recovery, with modest growth driven by key sectors like fishing, yet remains vulnerable to inflationary pressures and structural imbalances exacerbated by austerity measures. These fiscal challenges reflect broader regional vulnerabilities in managing debt sustainability amid global market volatility.

Resource politics and trade dynamics highlight shifting power balances in the hemisphere. Brazil's record debt issuance in 2024 and its continued reliance on high-interest borrowing point to the challenges of balancing fiscal sustainability with economic growth. In the energy sector, Argentina's LNG export ambitions signify opportunities for economic revitalization but are accompanied by risks linked to global energy price volatility and geopolitical shifts under U.S. pro-energy policies. Additionally, Mexico's slowing inflation suggests space for continued monetary easing, though external pressures, including U.S. tariff threats, could complicate economic recovery.

U.S. immigration policies exacerbate social and economic challenges in Central America and Mexico. President Trump's suspension of asylum appointments has left thousands of migrants stranded in Mexico, fueling social tensions and creating humanitarian crises. Migrants from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East face compounded challenges, including extortion and violence, highlighting systemic gaps in regional migration management frameworks. The militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border further intensifies the situation, straining bilateral relations and infrastructure.

Short-term risks include rising trade disputes, financial instability, and migration crises. Long-term stability hinges on multilateral cooperation, governance reforms, and strategies to manage the region's economic and social pressures sustainably.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(24-01-2025)

The Americas are navigating a complex landscape marked by economic uncertainties, geopolitical shifts, and social instability. Key risks include escalating U.S. trade tensions, regional economic vulnerabilities, and the intensification of resource politics, which collectively heighten instability across the hemisphere.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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