Global Risk Indexes (24-01-2025)

Global 96 (0 —)
MENA 94 (-1 ▼)
APAC 95 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 95 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 95 (-2 ▼)
Markets 97 ( —)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Conflict, Resource Diplomacy, and Africa's Global Role Define January 24's Geopolitical Landscape

Sudan's civil war deepens, with attacks on the Khartoum refinery further disrupting the country's fragile energy production. This latest escalation is emblematic of the RSF's strategy to weaponize critical infrastructure, crippling army-controlled areas while amplifying the humanitarian crisis. The economic ramifications of halting refinery operations compound Sudan's spiraling collapse, given its reliance on oil revenue for fiscal stability. The conflict's protraction risks regional spillover effects, destabilizing neighboring South Sudan and further straining humanitarian networks. Resolving this conflict demands a robust international framework prioritizing ceasefires, civilian protection, and the depoliticization of critical infrastructure.

The DRC's worsening security crisis in the east, marked by M23's rapid territorial gains, poses a direct challenge to regional stability and global resource supply chains. Control over areas like Minova and Sake grants the group access to valuable mining regions, with implications for cobalt and coltan exports critical to the global tech industry. Rwanda's alleged support for M23 exacerbates regional tensions, particularly with Uganda and Angola involved in peace efforts. The failure of these diplomatic initiatives highlights the limitations of current regional mechanisms, necessitating stronger interventions from multilateral actors to address both the immediate conflict and the structural governance issues fueling insurgencies.

Nigeria's internal security struggles continue to dominate its political and economic narrative. The emergence of Lakurawa as a new terrorist threat underscores the proliferation of extremist groups exploiting governance failures and socio-economic disparities. Borno's latest killings highlight the need for Nigeria to move beyond reactive military responses and adopt proactive, community-centered strategies that address poverty, education deficits, and local grievances. Without such interventions, Nigeria risks entrenching a cycle of violence that undermines both stability and economic progress.

Botswana's diamond negotiations with De Beers represent a pivotal moment in its quest for economic sovereignty. President Duma Boko's push for a larger share of diamond revenues and ownership stakes is emblematic of a broader trend across Africa, where resource-rich nations are renegotiating contracts to assert control over their wealth. While this strategy aligns with long-term national interests, Botswana must avoid alienating investors by ensuring negotiations are transparent and mutually beneficial. Diversifying its economy beyond diamond dependency is equally critical to reducing vulnerability to commodity price shocks.

Morocco's energy diversification efforts, exemplified by its planned 990 MW gas-fired power plant, reflect a pragmatic approach to balancing renewable energy ambitions with the need for reliable baseload power. As Europe increasingly views Africa as a solution to its energy diversification goals, Morocco is positioning itself as a critical energy hub. However, achieving this vision requires efficient project implementation, minimizing environmental externalities, and fostering regional energy integration to amplify its influence in global markets.

Libya's war crimes controversy underscores the tensions between sovereignty and international justice. Italy's repatriation of a Libyan brigadier general under ICC investigation raises ethical concerns over Europe's reliance on Libyan cooperation to manage migration flows. This episode reflects the broader challenge of balancing short-term security priorities with long-term commitments to human rights and accountability. For Libya, maintaining legitimacy in its partnerships will require tangible progress in governance reforms and reconciliation efforts.

Strategic Implications: January 24 epitomizes the complex interplay of conflict, resource politics, and global partnerships shaping Africa's trajectory. Sudan and the DRC highlight the urgent need for conflict resolution mechanisms that address structural governance failures and regional interdependencies. Simultaneously, resource diplomacy in Botswana and Libya underscores Africa's evolving agency in global markets, but this must be coupled with internal reforms to ensure inclusive and sustainable development. A coordinated approach emphasizing governance, regional integration, and strategic international alliances is key to fostering resilience and unlocking Africa's potential.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(24-01-2025)

The events of January 24 reveal a continent facing mounting pressures from deep-rooted conflicts, contested resource governance, and international partnerships shaped by shifting global power dynamics. Sudan and the DRC underscore Africa's enduring security vulnerabilities, while Botswana and Libya navigate critical junctures in resource diplomacy. Meanwhile, Morocco's energy strategy exemplifies Africa's potential to shape its narrative in global markets. These developments demand an integrated approach combining governance reforms, regional unity, and equitable engagement with global powers to harness the continent's opportunities while addressing its systemic fragilities.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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