Global Risk Indexes (26-01-2025)

Global 97 (+1 ▲)
MENA 94 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 95 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 98 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Governance Failures, and Resource Rivalries Deepen Geopolitical Risks Across the Americas

The Americas are navigating an increasingly fraught geopolitical environment defined by trade disputes, resource conflicts, and social instability. This week highlighted the region's strategic vulnerabilities and opportunities amidst global economic shifts and political transitions.

U.S.-China and U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade dynamics signal growing uncertainty for regional economies. President Donald Trump's threats of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, coupled with a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, have raised alarm over the future of trade frameworks like USMCA. Canada's retaliatory measures on critical minerals reflect an assertive response to protect its economic interests, while Mexico grapples with potential inflationary pressures. These developments underscore the fragility of economic integration in North America and the broader implications of a global trade realignment led by the U.S.

Colombia's escalating violence highlights entrenched governance failures and humanitarian crises. The suspension of peace talks with the ELN amidst clashes in Catatumbo has displaced over 32,000 people and disrupted resource-dependent regions critical to Colombia's economy. Armed conflicts in Colombia's gold mining areas further undermine investor confidence and reflect the systemic inability to enforce state authority, particularly in resource-rich zones.

Migration crises at the U.S.-Mexico border emphasize systemic governance gaps and rising humanitarian pressures. The suspension of asylum appointments and refugee resettlement programs has left thousands stranded in overcrowded camps, intensifying social tensions and creating volatile conditions for Central American and Mexican border towns. These challenges demand comprehensive international migration frameworks to alleviate immediate humanitarian concerns and address root causes.

Resource politics and environmental challenges dominate the hemisphere's strategic agenda. Brazil's fiscal instability, exacerbated by its reliance on high-interest borrowing, intersects with its leadership role in global climate discussions at COP30. Simultaneously, Argentina's LNG export ambitions present opportunities for economic revitalization but face risks from global market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties. The U.S.-Panama Canal dispute further compounds these challenges, threatening a vital trade artery and raising sovereignty concerns in Panama.

Short-term risks are dominated by U.S.-led trade disruptions, Colombian conflict zones, and migration pressures. Long-term stability requires robust governance reforms, sustainable resource management, and strategic regional cooperation to mitigate these interconnected challenges effectively.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(26-01-2025)

The Americas remain engulfed in escalating trade tensions, resource conflicts, and migration crises. These issues, compounded by governance challenges and U.S. policy shifts, have heightened the region's geopolitical volatility. Multilateral engagement and systemic reforms are critical for fostering stability and addressing long-term vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (26-01-2025)

U.S.-China and U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Disputes

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Trade tensions threaten regional economic integration and necessitate urgent multilateral negotiations to mitigate global supply chain disruptions.

Direct (26-01-2025)

Migration Crises and U.S. Immigration Policies

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Humanitarian challenges along the U.S.-Mexico border underscore the need for coordinated international migration policies.

Direct (26-01-2025)

U.S.-Panama Canal Dispute

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Sovereignty tensions over the canal threaten global trade flows, necessitating diplomatic intervention to ensure stability.

Indirect (25-01-2025)

U.S.-China Relations and Tariff Threats

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Tariff threats risk disrupting global supply chains, with significant spillover effects on trade-dependent economies in the Americas.

Direct (25-01-2025)

Migration Crises at U.S.-Mexico Border

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Stricter U.S. asylum policies heighten social tensions and humanitarian risks, emphasizing the need for coordinated migration solutions.

Direct (24-01-2025)

U.S.-Panama Canal Dispute

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Rising tensions over U.S. rhetoric threaten Panama's economic stability and global trade flows, necessitating diplomatic resolution.

Direct (24-01-2025)

Migration and Border Security Challenges

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: U.S. immigration policy changes heighten social tensions and humanitarian crises, emphasizing the need for regional migration solutions.

Direct (23-01-2025)

Re-designation of Houthis as a Terrorist Organization

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The designation escalates U.S.-Houthi tensions and complicates humanitarian efforts, exacerbating Yemen's crisis while amplifying maritime insecurity.

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