Global Risk Indexes (30-01-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Conflicts, Military-Industrial Shifts, and Economic Instability Deepen Geopolitical Risks in the Americas

The Americas are witnessing escalating geopolitical volatility, driven by mounting trade disputes, shifting military alignments, and economic policy shifts that threaten regional stability. The latest developments reveal increasing risks in trade, security, and economic governance, which could define the strategic trajectory of the hemisphere in the coming months.

U.S.-Canada trade relations reach a boiling point amid escalating tariff threats. With President Trump threatening a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports, Ottawa has signaled a firm retaliatory response, vowing that countermeasures will be regionally fair but strategically impactful. Canada's heavy dependence on U.S. markets'sending 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor'places it in a vulnerable position, though its emphasis on diversification efforts with European partners suggests a gradual economic pivot.

Mexico braces for economic retaliation while seeking alternative trade partners. President Claudia Sheinbaum has downplayed the likelihood of U.S. tariffs but has prepared retaliatory measures targeting politically sensitive U.S. exports such as pork, cheese, and steel. While Mexico has intensified its cooperation with U.S. border security demands, the looming trade conflict threatens its manufacturing sector and North American supply chains.

Argentina deepens military-industrial realignments, leveraging European partnerships. Germany's approval of $4.1 billion in state-backed guarantees for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems' bid to supply submarines to Argentina reflects Buenos Aires' growing pivot toward European military partnerships. The long-term implications of this deal extend beyond Argentina's naval capabilities, signaling a potential reorientation away from U.S. defense procurement.

Brazil's economic uncertainty and resource disputes highlight governance and market risks. The Brazilian central bank has hiked interest rates amid rising inflation, while concerns over fiscal instability continue to pressure the real. Meanwhile, the rejection of soymeal shipments from the port of Paranagua due to quality concerns underscores ongoing challenges in maintaining agricultural trade standards, especially with key partners like China. Additionally, the country faces growing uncertainty over funding for its UN-backed Operation Welcome initiative to resettle Venezuelan migrants, following the Trump administration's freeze on U.S. foreign aid.

Chile advances major pension reform in a move to balance economic equity and fiscal sustainability. The long-awaited overhaul of Chile's private pension system, which increases employer contributions and aims to reduce pension inequality, marks a significant shift in the country's economic governance. While the reform is expected to improve social security, concerns remain over potential labor market disruptions due to rising employer costs.

Short-term risks include escalating trade conflicts, economic volatility, and resource management challenges. Long-term stability will depend on strategic trade realignments, governance reforms, and multilateral cooperation to navigate these growing pressures.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(30-01-2025)

Geopolitical instability in the Americas is intensifying due to escalating trade tensions, aggressive migration policies, economic uncertainties, and military-industrial realignments. The region is caught between U.S.-led economic and political pressures, worsening internal governance challenges, and strategic shifts in global trade and security relations.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (30-01-2025)

U.S.-Canada Trade Conflict and Retaliatory Measures

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Potential U.S. tariffs could destabilize Canada's economy, forcing Ottawa to diversify trade ties while retaliating against strategically chosen U.S. sectors.

Direct (29-01-2025)

U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Disputes

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Ongoing tariff threats risk long-term economic fragmentation in North America, necessitating diplomatic negotiations to maintain trade stability.

Direct (29-01-2025)

Climate Variability and Agricultural Disruptions

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Extreme weather threatens agricultural production in Latin America, necessitating urgent policy interventions for food security and climate adaptation.

Direct (28-01-2025)

U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico Trade Disputes

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Tariff threats risk undermining economic stability and regional cooperation, necessitating diplomatic resolutions to preserve trade frameworks like USMCA.

Direct (28-01-2025)

Climate Variability and Food Security in Latin America

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Climate-induced disruptions in agriculture threaten food security and economic resilience, requiring robust adaptation strategies and international support.

Direct (28-01-2025)

Colombian Trade and Migration Dynamics

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Colombia's dependency on resource exports and the impact of U.S. migration policies highlight systemic vulnerabilities that demand strategic responses.

Direct (27-01-2025)

U.S.-Colombia Trade and Deportation Dynamics

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: Tariff threats tied to immigration enforcement risk damaging economic ties and straining diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Direct (27-01-2025)

Militarization of U.S. Deportation Policies

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The use of military aircraft for deportations sets a controversial precedent, raising ethical and diplomatic concerns across the hemisphere.

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