Global Risk Indexes (30-01-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (-1 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific at a Crossroads: AI Disruptions, Maritime Confrontations, and Political Upheavals Reshape Regional Stability

The Asia-Pacific remains the epicenter of global shifts, as key players navigate escalating strategic tensions, economic realignments, and governance crises. From AI regulations and trade disruptions to maritime confrontations, the region is grappling with a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

DeepSeek Faces EU Scrutiny Amid AI Geopolitical Rivalry: The rapid rise of China's DeepSeek AI has sparked regulatory backlash in Europe, with Ireland and Italy launching investigations into its data practices. The app's removal from Apple and Google stores in Italy, coupled with Ireland's demand for transparency, underscores growing European concerns over China's AI expansion. The scrutiny reflects broader geopolitical tensions, as DeepSeek's challenge to U.S. dominance in generative AI rattles Western regulators. Meanwhile, OpenAI's Sam Altman is set to visit India amid legal battles, highlighting the shifting landscape of AI governance and market dominance.

China's Influence Operations Exposed in Europe: Reports from Graphika reveal China-linked information warfare campaigns targeting European governments, including a call for regime change in Spain through fabricated online protests. The operation, allegedly linked to the 'Spamouflage' network, highlights Beijing's growing use of digital influence tactics to manipulate public sentiment abroad. The exposure of such operations is likely to deepen mistrust between China and the EU, reinforcing European efforts to counter foreign electoral interference.

Philippines-U.S. Military Integration Deepens Amid South China Sea Tensions: The integration of Philippine troops into U.S. Typhon missile system training marks a significant escalation in Manila's defense posture. The move, aimed at countering China's assertive maritime activities, signals the deepening of U.S.-Philippines military cooperation. However, with Beijing intensifying its harassment of Philippine vessels in disputed waters, the risk of a direct naval confrontation is rising, elevating regional security concerns.

Japan's Yen Gains as Interest Rate Trajectory Diverges: The yen's broad gains reflect market expectations that Japan will maintain a tightening cycle while other central banks ease policies. The divergence, exacerbated by the European Central Bank's dovish stance, is driving renewed capital inflows into Japan. This shift could enhance Japan's economic resilience but may also introduce volatility if inflationary pressures rise beyond the Bank of Japan's control.

China's Economic Indicators Signal Diverging Commodity Trends: China's declining coal and iron ore imports signal shifts in industrial demand, with coal prices hitting multi-year lows while iron ore remains stable. This divergence suggests structural adjustments in China's energy and manufacturing sectors, as Beijing balances economic growth with environmental and energy security policies.

Myanmar Junta's Election Gambit Risks Escalating Conflict: The Myanmar military's push to hold elections despite an ongoing civil war represents its most serious bid for legitimacy since seizing power in 2021. However, with only half the country under junta control and opposition forces actively seeking to disrupt the vote, the prospect of widespread violence looms large. ASEAN's warnings to the junta to prioritize ceasefires over elections reflect growing regional concern over Myanmar's spiraling crisis.

Australia's Security Concerns Rise Amid Antisemitism Surge: The discovery of an antisemitic terror plot in Sydney has triggered fresh fears over domestic extremism. With Israel urging Canberra to take stronger measures against rising antisemitic attacks, Prime Minister Albanese faces mounting political pressure ahead of upcoming elections. The issue has the potential to shape Australia's domestic security policies and electoral landscape in the coming months.

Trump's Refugee Freeze Impacts Australia's Offshore Asylum Policies: The suspension of U.S. refugee programs has disrupted Australia's resettlement efforts, leaving asylum seekers in limbo. Canberra's ongoing reliance on offshore detention in Nauru is under renewed scrutiny, highlighting the broader consequences of Washington's shifting immigration policies on allied nations.

The Asia-Pacific's future will be shaped by how regional actors navigate the intersection of technology competition, security dilemmas, and economic transformations. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, proactive policy responses and adaptive strategies will be essential in managing risks and sustaining stability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(30-01-2025)

The Asia-Pacific is at a critical juncture, with strategic tensions, technological disruptions, and governance shifts shaping the region's trajectory. As competition over AI, trade, and maritime security intensifies, the risks of economic fragmentation and geopolitical miscalculation grow, demanding nuanced and proactive policy responses.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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