Global Risk Indexes (27-01-2025)

Global 96 (-1 ▼)
MENA 94 ( —)
APAC 96 (-1 ▼)
Europe 97 (-1 ▼)
Africa 96 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 96 (-1 ▼)
Markets 97 (-1 ▼)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Conflict Escalations, Resource Rivalries, and Governance Failures Define Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on January 27

The fall of Goma to M23 rebels marks a turning point in the DRC's protracted conflict, with far-reaching implications for regional stability and global supply chains. The capture of the eastern city, a strategic hub for trade and humanitarian operations, underscores the failures of peacekeeping efforts by MONUSCO and SADC forces. Rwanda's alleged support for M23 complicates diplomatic efforts, straining relations with Kinshasa and raising fears of a broader regional war. With over 400,000 people displaced in 2025 alone, the humanitarian crisis in eastern Congo is escalating. The situation demands coordinated multilateral action to halt the conflict, protect civilians, and address the governance and resource disputes fueling the crisis.

Sudan's humanitarian crisis deepened following a drone strike by the RSF on the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital in North Darfur, killing over 70 people, including women and children. The attack on Sudan's last functional hospital in El Fasher exemplifies the war's devastating impact on civilian infrastructure and healthcare systems. The RSF's actions have drawn condemnation from international actors, but a lack of sustained diplomatic engagement has allowed the crisis to fester. Resolving Sudan's conflict requires addressing the root causes of the power struggle between military factions and prioritizing humanitarian access and the protection of civilians.

Governance crises in Sierra Leone resurfaced with media reports alleging high-level protection for convicted cocaine trafficker Jos Leijdekkers. The reports, featuring evidence of Leijdekkers' proximity to President Bio's family, have raised questions about Sierra Leone's vulnerability to transnational organized crime. This highlights the broader challenge of institutional fragility in West Africa, where weak governance structures and limited enforcement capacity allow criminal networks to exploit state systems. Tackling these challenges requires enhanced international cooperation and domestic judicial reforms to rebuild public trust and accountability.

Nigeria's security woes continued with a deadly attack by ISWAP on a military base in Borno, leaving 20 soldiers dead. The incident underscores the persistence of insurgent groups exploiting governance failures in northern Nigeria. While military operations have achieved tactical victories, the lack of comprehensive strategies addressing poverty, unemployment, and education deficits perpetuates cycles of violence. Nigeria must adopt an integrated security approach, combining military efforts with socio-economic interventions, to dismantle the conditions that sustain extremism.

Environmental concerns in Somalia emerged after over 100 dolphins were found dead on the coast of Puntland. While initial reports suggest no evidence of toxic materials, the incident raises questions about environmental governance and the impact of human activity on marine ecosystems. Addressing these issues requires coordinated regional policies and investment in research and sustainable fishing practices to protect marine biodiversity.

East Africa's counter-terrorism efforts showed progress with the arrest of 37 suspected terrorists during joint operations by Interpol and Afripol. These arrests highlight the potential of international collaboration in addressing terrorism. However, the persistence of porous borders, socio-economic challenges, and political instability in the region underscores the need for systemic reforms to disrupt recruitment pipelines and prevent extremist ideologies from taking root.

Strategic Implications: The events of January 27 underscore Africa's dual narrative of enduring vulnerabilities and emerging opportunities. The DRC and Sudan's escalating crises highlight the cost of governance failures and regional instability, while Sierra Leone and Nigeria demonstrate the risks of systemic fragility. At the same time, progress in counter-terrorism efforts in East Africa points to the potential of coordinated international action. Addressing these challenges will require African nations to strengthen governance, invest in human security, and navigate global partnerships that prioritize stability and sustainable development.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(27-01-2025)

Africa's geopolitical landscape on January 27, 2025, highlights the escalation of protracted conflicts, governance crises, and the intensifying contest over resource-rich territories. The fall of Goma to the M23 in the DRC represents a major setback for regional stability, while Sudan's humanitarian crisis deepens with attacks on healthcare infrastructure. Meanwhile, international collaboration against terrorism in East Africa demonstrates positive momentum, but underlying socio-political vulnerabilities remain unaddressed. Addressing these challenges demands decisive governance reforms, robust regional security frameworks, and equitable international partnerships to mitigate risks and foster stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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