Global Risk Indexes (29-01-2025)

Global 97 (+1 ▲)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 96 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 96 (+1 ▲)
Markets 98 (+2 ▲)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

DRC's Crisis Deepens, Resource Diplomacy Intensifies, and Regional Alliances Shift: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 29

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has entered a new phase of crisis following the complete fall of Goma to M23 rebels, marking the most significant shift in the Great Lakes conflict since 2012. The loss of the city, its airport, and its humanitarian corridors exacerbates an already dire refugee crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced and medical facilities overwhelmed. M23's financial lifeline'illicit mineral trade through Rwanda'has now expanded, raising concerns over the group's growing economic self-sufficiency and its ability to sustain a prolonged insurgency. With Kinshasa politically weakened, international diplomatic engagement is necessary to contain the crisis before it spirals into a broader regional conflict.

Regional and global responses to the DRC's crisis have been hesitant, reflecting the complex geopolitical stakes at play. The United States has called for a ceasefire and warned Rwanda over its role in the conflict, yet tangible action remains unlikely due to Kigali's entrenched international partnerships. Rwanda's military influence, coupled with economic interdependencies with Western nations, has thus far shielded it from the level of international pressure that forced M23's retreat in 2013. With France and the United States focused on broader global conflicts, and the East African Community (EAC) struggling to mediate, the likelihood of decisive intervention remains low, prolonging instability in the region.

Libya's ongoing resource disputes saw a new flashpoint with protests at the Es Sidra oil port, where local groups have demanded greater regional investment. The protests underscore Libya's struggle to manage its hydrocarbon wealth equitably, a challenge that continues to fuel political instability. The risk of further oil disruptions could impact global markets, given Libya's strategic role as an energy supplier to Europe. Without a transparent revenue-sharing mechanism, Libya's economic future will remain vulnerable to internal fragmentation.

Mozambique's LNG sector faces renewed challenges, with TotalEnergies reaffirming its commitment to restarting the $20 billion Cabo Delgado project. However, security concerns remain a key obstacle, as insurgent activity in the region continues to threaten the viability of long-term energy investments. The Mozambican government's ability to stabilize Cabo Delgado will determine whether the country can fully leverage its LNG resources or remain trapped in a cycle of underdevelopment and insecurity.

Ghana's Gold Board initiative represents a strategic shift in resource governance, aiming to curb illegal mining and increase state control over gold exports. While the initiative has the potential to boost Ghana's gold revenues and reduce smuggling, its success hinges on institutional capacity and enforcement mechanisms. If implemented effectively, Ghana could set a precedent for other resource-rich African nations seeking to reclaim control over their natural wealth.

ECOWAS's formalization of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger's withdrawal marks a critical moment in West Africa's political realignment. The three Sahelian states have now consolidated their breakaway from the regional bloc, raising questions about future cooperation on security and economic matters. Their alignment under the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) signals a move toward a multipolar regional order, with potential implications for counterterrorism efforts and economic integration.

Strategic Implications: The events of January 29 highlight Africa's struggle to balance internal stability with external pressures. The DRC crisis demonstrates the dangers of unchecked rebel financing and weak multilateral responses, while Libya's and Mozambique's resource disputes emphasize the necessity of governance reforms. Meanwhile, Ghana and ECOWAS's realignments showcase Africa's evolving economic and political landscape. Moving forward, African states must prioritize robust governance frameworks, regional unity, and strategic global engagement to secure long-term stability and economic resilience.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(29-01-2025)

Africa's geopolitical landscape on January 29, 2025, is defined by the intensification of the DRC's conflict, shifting regional alignments, and escalating disputes over resource governance. The fall of Goma to M23 marks a decisive moment in the Great Lakes conflict, with broader implications for regional security and global supply chains. Simultaneously, Libya's oil disputes, Mozambique's LNG negotiations, and Ghana's gold market reforms underscore Africa's ongoing struggle to balance economic sovereignty with geopolitical realities. These developments signal the need for robust diplomatic intervention, stronger regional security frameworks, and economic diversification strategies to ensure long-term stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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