Global Risk Indexes (01-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 97 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Migration Militarization, and Resource Conflicts Escalate Geopolitical Tensions in the Americas

The Americas are experiencing increasing geopolitical and economic turbulence as trade wars, border security crises, and resource disputes reshape the region's strategic landscape. The latest developments underscore a fragile regional order, requiring urgent policy interventions to prevent further destabilization.

U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico trade tensions escalate, threatening economic integration. President Trump's aggressive tariff agenda, targeting Canadian and Mexican imports, has triggered strong retaliatory measures from both countries. Canada has announced strategic counter-tariffs on key U.S. agricultural and industrial exports, while Mexico has intensified efforts to secure alternative trade partnerships in Europe and Asia. These moves mark a significant deterioration in North American economic cooperation, raising the prospect of a fractured regional trade order.

Militarization of migration policies increases diplomatic rifts in the hemisphere. The use of U.S. military aircraft for mass deportations, combined with harsh detention conditions for migrants, has provoked diplomatic backlash from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Reports of deteriorating humanitarian conditions in overcrowded border facilities further fuel international criticism of U.S. policies. With deportation flights increasing, border tensions are set to escalate, placing pressure on Central American governments to manage returning populations amid fragile economies.

Colombia's internal conflict escalates as state authority weakens in strategic regions. Renewed clashes between the ELN and paramilitary groups in Norte de Santander have resulted in significant civilian displacement. President Gustavo Petro's inability to enforce security in resource-rich territories is deterring foreign investment and increasing the risk of prolonged economic stagnation. The government's struggle to balance peace negotiations with military enforcement highlights the fragility of Colombia's governance framework.

Argentina's military-industrial shift away from U.S. defense suppliers continues. Following its submarine procurement deal with Germany, Argentina is now in talks with European partners for advanced weapons systems, signaling a strategic shift in its defense procurement policies. This transition not only reflects Argentina's intent to modernize its military but also represents a weakening of U.S. defense influence in the region.

Resource conflicts and economic pressures strain regional stability. Brazil's fiscal instability, coupled with mounting concerns over agricultural trade disputes, continues to challenge its economic recovery. Meanwhile, Chile's pension reform battle is intensifying, with growing resistance from corporate sectors wary of higher employer contributions. These economic struggles, if unresolved, could exacerbate social unrest and weaken investor confidence in key South American markets.

Short-term risks include heightened trade disputes, deepening migration crises, and rising internal conflicts in resource-dependent nations. Long-term stability hinges on strategic trade diversification, governance reforms, and multilateral cooperation to address these mounting threats.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(01-02-2025)

Geopolitical volatility in the Americas is intensifying due to escalating trade conflicts, heightened security concerns, and governance struggles across key economies. The destabilization of regional economic frameworks, the militarization of migration policies, and shifting alliances in the military-industrial sector signal a period of heightened instability with far-reaching implications.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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