Global Risk Indexes (01-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 97 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Ceasefire Talks, West Bank Clashes, and Syria's Economic Dilemmas: MENA's Geopolitical Uncertainty Deepens

The Middle East continues to grapple with overlapping crises as diplomatic negotiations, military escalations, and economic realignments shape the region's geopolitical trajectory. While the Gaza ceasefire holds, the risk of collapse remains high as Israel intensifies operations in the West Bank, Lebanon's economic fragility worsens, and Syria's transition struggles to gain legitimacy.

Egypt and the U.S. have reiterated their commitment to consolidating the Gaza ceasefire, but significant roadblocks remain. While President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and former U.S. President Donald Trump discussed reinforcing the truce, the latter's suggestion of relocating Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan has sparked strong regional opposition. Arab foreign ministers, meeting in Cairo, firmly rejected any forced population transfer, warning that such a move would undermine regional stability. Trump's rhetoric, which suggests that U.S. aid should pressure Egypt and Jordan into compliance, risks alienating key U.S. allies in the region at a time when Washington is seeking to mediate further hostage exchanges and long-term governance arrangements for Gaza.

In Gaza, the humanitarian crisis remains dire despite increased aid inflows. The Rafah crossing has seen a surge in humanitarian shipments, yet logistical obstacles continue to hinder relief efforts. The deteriorating health conditions of malnourished children highlight the long-term consequences of the conflict, with UN estimates indicating that over 60,000 children will require treatment for acute malnutrition. The fragile ceasefire, initially brokered by Qatar and Egypt, has enabled limited prisoner exchanges, with Hamas handing over three Israeli hostages in exchange for 183 Palestinian detainees. However, deep political divisions in Israel and within Hamas raise concerns over whether the next phase of negotiations will succeed.

Meanwhile, the situation in the West Bank continues to escalate. Israeli airstrikes in Jenin killed five Palestinians, including a 16-year-old, marking another flashpoint in an already volatile environment. With hundreds of Israeli soldiers conducting sweeping raids, the Palestinian Authority's influence continues to erode. The Israeli government justifies its military actions by linking them to Iranian arms smuggling networks, though Western intelligence assessments dispute the scale of Iranian involvement. The Israeli military's entrenchment in the West Bank could lead to a wider Palestinian uprising, particularly if civilian casualties continue to mount.

Lebanon's economic and political crisis shows no signs of easing, as foreign investors pull out amid Hezbollah's growing influence. The UAE's Al Habtoor Group has confirmed the cancellation of planned investments, further exacerbating Lebanon's financial woes. Simultaneously, border tensions with Israel remain high, with Hezbollah issuing new warnings of retaliation following Israeli airstrikes in the Bekaa Valley. The fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire is at risk of unraveling, with both sides trading accusations of ceasefire violations.

In Syria, the economic crisis deepens as the new government struggles to secure fuel imports. With Iran reportedly halting crude shipments to Syria, the Assad-era fuel infrastructure is collapsing. Attempts to secure alternative oil supplies through private intermediaries have so far been unsuccessful, as global traders remain hesitant due to sanctions risks. President Ahmed al-Sharaa's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia could be a pivotal moment in Syria's economic rehabilitation, particularly if Riyadh signals willingness to assist in stabilizing the country's energy sector. Meanwhile, Syria has arrested Atef Najib, a former security official widely blamed for the brutal crackdown that ignited the 2011 uprising. The arrest signals an attempt by the new government to distance itself from Assad's legacy, though its Islamist leanings continue to raise concerns in Western capitals.

Maritime security in the Red Sea remains a major challenge as the Houthis maintain an unpredictable posture. While the Suez Canal Authority has urged Maersk and other shipping giants to resume Red Sea operations, most firms remain hesitant due to continued security threats. The recent surge in cargo traffic through Spanish ports highlights how businesses are increasingly adapting to prolonged instability in the region.

Strategic Implications: The region remains in a precarious equilibrium where multiple crises intersect. The Gaza ceasefire remains at risk, West Bank tensions could lead to broader conflict, and Lebanon's economic decline continues to deter investment. Syria's energy crisis complicates its fragile transition, while maritime insecurity persists as a significant challenge to global trade. The role of external actors, particularly the U.S., Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, will be critical in determining whether de-escalation efforts succeed or whether the region moves toward further instability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(01-02-2025)

The MENA region remains in a high-risk state, with growing instability in the West Bank, fragile Gaza ceasefire talks, and increasing tensions in Lebanon and Syria. Diplomatic maneuvering between Egypt, Israel, and the U.S. underscores the geopolitical volatility, while maritime security and economic shifts add layers of uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Index

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