Global Risk Indexes (02-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 (+1 ▲)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Warfare, Militarized Borders, and Political Realignments Push the Americas Toward an Era of Uncertainty

The Americas are in a period of acute geopolitical turbulence, with economic, security, and diplomatic crises converging to reshape the region's power dynamics. The week's developments underscore the fragility of regional cooperation and the risks of prolonged instability if structural reforms and diplomatic recalibrations are not swiftly enacted.

U.S.-led trade conflicts threaten North American economic cohesion. The Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports has set the stage for a trade war that could unravel USMCA, a core pillar of North American economic integration. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture and Mexico's move to seek alternative trade partnerships in Europe and Asia reflect the deepening fracture in regional trade relations. While full economic decoupling is unlikely in the short term due to entrenched supply chains, these tensions signal a shift in long-term economic alliances.

The militarization of U.S. deportation policies is generating a diplomatic backlash across Latin America. The use of military aircraft for mass deportations, coupled with worsening conditions in detention centers, has sparked strong reactions from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Brazil has lodged formal complaints over the treatment of deported nationals, while Mexico is under increasing pressure to absorb a growing number of migrants. The humanitarian impact of these policies is straining diplomatic ties and creating volatility along major migration corridors.

Argentina's defense realignment with European suppliers marks a strategic shift away from U.S. influence. The government's decision to purchase submarines from Germany, backed by European state guarantees, represents a critical step in reshaping Latin America's defense procurement landscape. Buenos Aires' pursuit of additional European military partnerships signals a weakening of Washington's traditional grip on regional security dynamics, with long-term consequences for U.S. strategic interests.

Resource conflicts and economic governance failures are exacerbating regional instability. Colombia's escalating internal conflict between the ELN and paramilitary groups is undermining state control in key resource-rich regions, further deterring foreign investment. Meanwhile, Brazil's economic uncertainty, marked by currency volatility and high debt servicing costs, is compounding governance challenges. In Chile, ongoing pension reform disputes are deepening social tensions, signaling potential economic and labor disruptions.

Short-term risks include trade disruptions, worsening migration crises, and deepening conflicts in resource-dependent nations. Long-term stability will depend on diplomatic interventions, economic diversification, and governance reforms to address these multifaceted crises.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(02-02-2025)

The Americas face a heightened geopolitical crisis as U.S.-led trade conflicts escalate, migration policies become increasingly militarized, and economic instability grips key regional players. The confluence of these pressures, compounded by shifting military alliances and resource governance failures, is rapidly eroding regional stability, necessitating urgent diplomatic interventions.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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