Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) security situation continues to deteriorate, as Rwandan-backed M23 rebels seize the mining town of Nyabibwe, violating their own ceasefire. The capture of this strategically located hub'rich in gold and coltan'places the rebels within striking distance of Bukavu, raising fears of an imminent assault on the South Kivu provincial capital. Meanwhile, Malawi has ordered its troops to withdraw from the regional military force in eastern Congo, citing the declared ceasefire. However, the rebels' continued advances suggest the ceasefire is a tactical maneuver rather than a genuine attempt at de-escalation. This conflict remains one of the most volatile flashpoints in Africa, with direct implications for regional stability and mineral supply chains.
Nigeria's government has intensified its pressure on international oil companies (IOCs), enforcing its domestic crude supply mandate to support local refineries. The move, intended to bolster the Dangote Refinery and reduce fuel imports, has sparked resistance from IOCs, who argue that local refiners are offering below-market prices. Nigeria's approach reflects Africa's broader shift toward resource nationalism, but balancing state control with foreign investment remains a critical challenge. If mishandled, this dispute could impact Nigeria's oil production levels and deter long-term investment.
South Africa's economic and diplomatic standing is under pressure, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing he will not attend the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg. The decision follows Donald Trump's aid freeze over South Africa's land reform policies, further straining U.S.-South Africa relations. The absence of a top U.S. diplomat at a crucial global forum raises concerns about South Africa's ability to maintain its standing in the international economic order, particularly in light of ongoing fiscal and political uncertainties.
Mali's controversial new mining law is triggering investor flight, as major gold companies warn that its tax hikes and local ownership mandates make future investment unviable. The law, which raises royalty rates and compels companies to cede 35% of new projects to local investors, has already resulted in gold giant Barrick Gold shutting down operations and facing asset seizures. The exodus of foreign miners could severely impact Mali's economy, given that gold accounts for 80% of its exports. The government is under pressure to revise the law to prevent a collapse in investment.
Kenya is engaging in critical negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it seeks a new lending program to stabilize its economy. The talks come at a time of rising debt-servicing costs and limited fiscal space following last year's tax-related protests. The IMF's conditions will likely demand fiscal austerity, potentially triggering further public discontent.
The future of Mozambique's $20 billion LNG project remains uncertain, with TotalEnergies announcing that financing from U.S. credit agencies is still pending. The project, once seen as a game-changer for Africa's energy sector, has been stalled due to security concerns in Cabo Delgado. Further delays could undermine investor confidence in Mozambique's ability to manage large-scale resource projects.
Strategic Implications: February 6 underscores the precarious balance between Africa's push for resource sovereignty, economic pragmatism, and security stabilization. The DRC conflict is rapidly escalating into a broader regional crisis, while Nigeria and Mali's resource policies highlight the complexities of asserting economic control without deterring investment. South Africa's diplomatic rift with the U.S. could weaken its global economic positioning, and Kenya's IMF negotiations may have significant implications for fiscal policy. Addressing these challenges requires strategic policymaking, regional coordination, and adaptive economic planning.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(06-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 6, 2025, is shaped by intensifying security crises, resource nationalism, and growing economic uncertainty. The worsening DRC conflict, Nigeria's oil policy disputes, and South Africa's diplomatic tensions with the U.S. underscore the continent's fragile geopolitical environment. Meanwhile, Mali's new mining law is triggering investor flight, Kenya is navigating IMF negotiations, and Mozambique's LNG project is facing delays due to renewed security concerns. These developments signal the need for robust regional cooperation, economic pragmatism, and conflict mediation efforts to mitigate escalating instability.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
- Resource Politics, Military Maneuvering, and Diplomatic Fractures: Africa's Key Shifts on February 5 - (05-02-2025)
- Conflict, Economic Nationalism, and Diplomatic Tensions: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 4 - (04-02-2025)
- Diplomatic Tensions, Security Crises, and Resource Sovereignty: Africa's Shifting Geopolitical Landscape on February 3 - (03-02-2025)
- Africa's Critical Inflection Point: Conflict Escalation, Economic Sovereignty, and Regional Realignment Shape the Continent's Future - (02-02-2025)
- Conflicts, Resource Nationalism, and Economic Realignments: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 1 - (01-02-2025)
- Escalating Conflicts, Resource Rivalries, and Economic Fragility: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 31 - (31-01-2025)
- Geopolitical Realignments, Economic Fractures, and Security Crises: Africa's Defining Challenges on January 30 - (30-01-2025)
