Global Risk Indexes (06-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 (+1 ▲)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Fragmentation, Migration Fallout, and Security Challenges Escalate Tensions in the Americas

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas is experiencing a period of rapid destabilization. Trade disputes, migration crises, and security concerns are converging, driving nations toward economic realignment, military recalibration, and diplomatic maneuvering.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade conflict deepens, accelerating economic fragmentation. The Trump administration's decision to uphold tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports has led to further retaliatory measures from Ottawa and Mexico City. Mexico is increasingly shifting its focus toward diversifying its trade portfolio with the European Union and China, while Canada is strengthening economic partnerships with Asia-Pacific nations. The fracturing of North American trade relations marks a departure from decades of economic integration and could reshape global trade routes.

Brazil and Argentina accelerate economic diversification strategies. As North America becomes less predictable in trade policy, Latin America's largest economies are solidifying their engagement with alternative partners. Argentina is negotiating new trade deals with the European Union, while Brazil is deepening ties with China through increased agricultural exports. These shifts highlight a growing willingness among Latin American nations to reduce reliance on Washington.

Migration policies become a diplomatic flashpoint as the U.S. ramps up deportations. The Trump administration's decision to proceed with mass deportations'despite legal challenges'has placed Mexico and Central American nations under increased strain. Reports of deportees facing immediate threats from organized crime upon arrival in their home countries are fueling international criticism of U.S. policies. Additionally, growing concerns over border security have led Mexico to consider tightening its own southern border to prevent further migration inflows.

Criminal networks exploit governance gaps amid economic and political uncertainty. The escalating economic downturn in Mexico, combined with governance failures in key regions, has allowed drug cartels and human trafficking networks to expand their influence. Similarly, in Colombia, the fragile peace process is facing renewed threats from armed groups, while Argentina is struggling to contain rising organized crime in urban centers. The combination of economic instability and governance failures is fueling insecurity across the region.

The geopolitical alignment of the Americas continues to evolve, increasing strategic divergences. Washington's tightening grip on key allies like Panama and El Salvador contrasts with the independent economic policies of nations like Brazil and Argentina. As the U.S. exerts pressure on hemispheric trade and security policies, Latin American countries are increasingly seeking alternative geopolitical and economic frameworks to safeguard national interests.

Short-term risks include economic disruptions, social unrest over migration policies, and security threats from organized crime. In the long term, the continued fragmentation of North American trade, the erosion of U.S. influence in Latin America, and shifting global partnerships could define the region's strategic trajectory for the next decade.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(06-02-2025)

The Americas continue to face a convergence of crises, including economic uncertainty, escalating migration tensions, and shifting geopolitical alignments. The U.S. trade war with Mexico and Canada is accelerating regional economic fragmentation, forcing Latin American nations to seek alternative economic partners. Meanwhile, migration policies are triggering legal and diplomatic battles, while organized crime networks exploit governance gaps to expand operations. The growing divergence between U.S.-aligned and non-aligned nations in the hemisphere is solidifying, increasing the likelihood of long-term structural shifts in trade, security, and diplomacy.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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